Süper Lig · Regular Season - 6
KocaelisporvGaziantep FK
Kocaelispor
Gaziantep FK·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Kocaelispor and Gaziantep FK finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Koc / Gaz | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Kocaelispor down the side and Gaziantep FK across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Kocaelispor44% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Kocaelispor the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Kocaelispor
Lineup not yet confirmed
- T. Gulliksen — out (Hamstring Injury)
- R. Rivas — out (Inactive)
- T. Bingol — out (Inactive)
- B. Petkovic — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Jovanovic — out (Knee Injury)
Gaziantep FK
Lineup not yet confirmed
- N. Sangare — out (Back Injury)
- A. O. Kalin — out (Inactive)
- S. Hansen — out (Injury)
- F. Bavuk — out (Injury)
- J. Bacuna — out (Red Card)
- B. Ndiaye — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
KocaelisporLWWWL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Galatasaray 0–1(xG 0.8–2.3)
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Samsunspor 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Konyaspor 2–1(xG 0.8–0.8)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Amed 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Başakşehir 0–2
Gaziantep FKDWLWD
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Fenerbahçe 0–0(xG 0.5–1.3)
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Göztepe 4–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Rizespor 1–2(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Eyüpspor 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Alanyaspor 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Kocaelispor have won 3 of their last 5.
- Kocaelispor have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Kocaelispor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Kocaelispor's last 5.
- Kocaelispor kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Gaziantep FK have won 2 of their last 5.
- Gaziantep FK have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Gaziantep FK's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Gaziantep FK's last 5.
- Gaziantep FK kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Kocaelispor
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Gaziantep FK
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit · Referee: H. U. Meler
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK?
- Our model makes Kocaelispor the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK?
- Kocaelispor's reported absences and doubts include T. Gulliksen, R. Rivas, T. Bingol, B. Petkovic and 1 other. Gaziantep FK's include N. Sangare, A. O. Kalin, S. Hansen, F. Bavuk and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.