Süper Lig · Regular Season - 6
BaşakşehirvGençlerbirliği S.K.
Başakşehir
Gençlerbirliği S.K.·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (13%), then 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K. finish on some other score 63% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Baş / Gen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Başakşehir down the side and Gençlerbirliği S.K. across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Başakşehir59% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Başakşehir the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 74%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Başakşehir
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- E. Visca — out (Inactive)
- U. Bozok — out (Red Card)
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- C. Niasse — out (Inactive)
- K. Rodrigues — out (Inactive)
- T. Gouveia — doubtful (Injury)
- D. Demir — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BaşakşehirLLDLW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Amed 0–5(xG 0.3–3.6)
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Galatasaray 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Kasımpaşa 1–1(xG 0.8–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Trabzonspor 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Kocaelispor 2–0
Gençlerbirliği S.K.LLDWW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Kasımpaşa 1–2(xG 1.1–1.2)
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Trabzonspor 0–5
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Erzurumspor FK 1–1(xG 0.8–0.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Göztepe 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Fenerbahçe 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Başakşehir have won 1 of their last 5.
- Başakşehir have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Başakşehir's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Başakşehir's last 5.
- Başakşehir kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 2 of their last 5.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 5.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Başakşehir
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul · Referee: A. Karaoglan
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
- Our model makes Başakşehir the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
- Başakşehir's reported absences and doubts include E. Visca, U. Bozok. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s include C. Niasse, K. Rodrigues, T. Gouveia, D. Demir. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
- Başakşehir line up in a 4-2-3-1, Gençlerbirliği S.K. in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.