Süper Lig · Regular Season - 6
TrabzonsporvGalatasaray
Trabzonspor
Galatasaray·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (7%). Trabzonspor and Galatasaray finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Tra / Gal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Trabzonspor down the side and Galatasaray across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Galatasaray46% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Galatasaray the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Trabzonspor
Lineup not yet confirmed
- N. Saviolo — out (Injury)
- R. Malinovskyi — out (Inactive)
- B. Bouchouari — out (Inactive)
- O. Yokuslu — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- E. Muci — out (Hamstring Injury)
- T. Jabol-Folcarelli — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Batagov — out (Knee Injury)
Galatasaray
Lineup not yet confirmed
- W. Singo — out (Thigh Injury)
- V. Osimhen — out (Injury)
- M. Lemina — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Leao — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Guvenc — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TrabzonsporLWLWD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Konyaspor 0–1(xG 0.8–1.0)
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Amed 1–2(xG 0.9–2.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Başakşehir 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Kasımpaşa 1–1
GalatasarayWWWWD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Kocaelispor 1–0(xG 2.3–0.8)
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Başakşehir 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Göztepe 3–2(xG 2.9–0.6)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Erzurumspor FK 4–0
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Çorum FK 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Trabzonspor have won 2 of their last 5.
- Trabzonspor have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Trabzonspor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Trabzonspor's last 5.
- Trabzonspor kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Galatasaray have won 4 of their last 5.
- Galatasaray have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Galatasaray's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Galatasaray's last 5.
- Galatasaray kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Trabzonspor
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Galatasaray
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Papara Park, Trabzon · Referee: B. Kolak
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray?
- Our model makes Galatasaray the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray?
- Trabzonspor's reported absences and doubts include N. Saviolo, R. Malinovskyi, B. Bouchouari, O. Yokuslu and 3 others. Galatasaray's include W. Singo, V. Osimhen, M. Lemina, R. Leao and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.