Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
1. Lig1 match
Bundesliga2 matches
1 match
Superliga5 matches
- FTSt. Truiden0–3Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 0–1 (0.8–1.6 goals)Under 2.5our bet51% likely · pays 2.31
- FTFC Luzern2–1FC VaduzSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTFC Thun0–0LausanneSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTGrasshoppers2–0FC ST. GallenSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTRed Bull Salzburg5–1Rapid ViennaBundesligavnot checked for this forecast
Jupiler Pro League
Super League
11 matches
- FTCeltic3–0AberdeenPremiershipv1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.8–0.7 goals)Under 3.559% likely · pays 1.80Last 6 between them averaged 2.7 goals.
- FTMotherwell3–0Dundee UtdPremiershipv1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.0 goals)Over 2.553% likely · pays 1.75Last 7 between them averaged 3.0 goals.
- FTKilmarnock0–1ST MirrenPremiershipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.1 goals)Under 2.5our bet51% likely · pays 2.37
- FTDundee1–1ST JohnstonePremiershipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.0 goals)Over 2.551% likely · pays 1.90Last 7 between them averaged 2.7 goals.
- FTMillwall0–3WrexhamChampionshipv1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.1 goals)Under 2.550% likely · pays 1.91
- FTWest Brom1–1CharltonChampionshipv1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.3–0.8 goals)Over 1.569% likely · pays 1.32Last 6 between them averaged 3.0 goals.
- FTQPR2–1CardiffChampionshipv1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.1 goals)Over 2.551% likely · pays 1.57Last 6 between them averaged 2.8 goals.
- FTWigan3–1Milton Keynes DonsLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTBarnsley2–1BlackpoolLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTBurton Albion4–1AFC WimbledonLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTLuton2–0Stockport CountyLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
Premiership
Championship
League One
3 matches
- FTFalkirk1–2RangersPremiershipv1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.1–2.0 goals)Under 3.563% likely · pays 1.58Last 6 between them averaged 1.8 goals.
- FTBurnley1–1MiddlesbroughChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.1 goals)Over 2.553% likely · pays 1.70Last 10 between them averaged 3.4 goals.
- FTReading5–0Mansfield TownLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
1 match
Serie AWhat the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
Today’s bets
Today's 4 are fewer than the 26.9 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- West Brom vCharltonUnder 2.5We make it 57% against a price of 51%. Read the case →
- Flamengo vMirassolYesBoth sides scored in 8 of their last 10.We make it 56% against a price of 42%. Read the case →
- St. Truiden vUnion St. GilloiseUnder 2.5We make it 51% against a price of 43%. Read the case →
- Kilmarnock vST MirrenUnder 2.5We make it 51% against a price of 42%. Read the case →
4 recommended, from 77 priced outcomes weighed · 26.9 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.