Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3
1899 HoffenheimvVfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (9%), then 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| 189 / VfB | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, 1899 Hoffenheim down the side and VfB Stuttgart across. These 98.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 42% against 53%.
What we think
- 1899 Hoffenheim39% · Match result
- Over 2.567% · Goals
- Yes63% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 58% against a market price of 47% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.6 goals, and 4.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.1 goals.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 4 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 11 for VfB Stuttgart.
Our forecast makes 1899 Hoffenheim the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 67%, against the market’s 74% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 41% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 23% draw · 36% away
Now: 41% home · 23% draw · 36% away
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Bernardo — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Prass — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Lemperle — out (Red Card)
- F. Asllani — out (Injury)
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Nartey — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Herwerth — out (Injury)
- L. Jaquez — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Tomas — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Zagadou — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Fuhrich — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Assignon — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Arevalo — out (Back Injury)
- D. Seimen — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Sauer — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Diehl — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
1899 HoffenheimLLLWD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Borussia Dortmund 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v 1. FC Köln 2–3(xG 1.8–1.7)
- Sat 16 May · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4
- Sat 9 May · H v Werder Bremen 1–0
- Sat 2 May · H v VfB Stuttgart 3–3
VfB StuttgartWLDWD
- Fri 4 Sep · H v 1. FC Köln 4–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Bayern München 1–5(xG 0.9–3.9)
- Sat 16 May · A v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2
- Sat 9 May · H v Bayer Leverkusen 3–1
- Sat 2 May · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 3–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 of their last 5.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 5.
- 1899 Hoffenheim kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 5.
- VfB Stuttgart have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5.
- VfB Stuttgart kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, VfB Stuttgart 2, with 6 drawn.
- 1899 Hoffenheim W–D–L
- 2–6–2
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 8 of 10
- 1899 Hoffenheim 3–3 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 0–0 1899 Hoffenheim
- 1899 Hoffenheim 1–1 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim
- 1899 Hoffenheim 0–3 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 2–3 1899 Hoffenheim
- VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 VfB Stuttgart
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1899 Hoffenheim
7Context
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
VfB Stuttgart
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Sven Jablonski, Germany
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 67%, and under 2.5 at 33%.
- Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance, against 37% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
- 1899 Hoffenheim's reported absences and doubts include Bernardo, A. Prass, T. Lemperle, F. Asllani. VfB Stuttgart's include N. Nartey, M. Herwerth, L. Jaquez, T. Tomas and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
- 1899 Hoffenheim line up in a 4-4-2, VfB Stuttgart in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
- In their last 10 meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, VfB Stuttgart 2, with 6 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 8.