Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3

FSV Mainz 05vEintracht Frankfurt

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1 – 3 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–11.6–1.4 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, FSV Mainz 05 goals down the side, Eintracht Frankfurt across
FSV / Ein012345
066520.70.2
18128310.3
279630.90.3
345320.50.1
41210.60.20.1
50.50.70.40.20.10.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FSV Mainz 05 down the side and Eintracht Frankfurt across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 80%, market 87%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 59%, market 67%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 35%, market 45%

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 45%.

What we think

  • FSV Mainz 0543% · Match result
  • Over 2.559% · Goals
  • Yes58% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5

  • We make this 65% against a market price of 55% — 10 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 79% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 2.6 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.3 goals.
  • 16 players reported unavailable — 7 for FSV Mainz 05, 9 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
  • The price has moved 8.0% towards FSV Mainz 05 since it opened.

Our forecast makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 54%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 67% — a 8 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives FSV Mainz 05 a 54% chance. Our model makes it 43%.

FSV Mainz 05Model 43% [37%–50%]Market 54%
FSV Mainz 05:, our forecast 43%, between 37% and 50%, market 54%

2Market

Open: 46% home · 25% draw · 29% away

Now: 54% home · 23% draw · 24% away

Moved +8pp — the market moved towards FSV Mainz 05

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home43%vs54%−11pp
Draw25%vs23%+2pp
Away31%vs24%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.559%vs67%−8pp
Under 2.541%vs33%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.580%vs87%−7pp
Under 1.520%vs13%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.535%vs45%−10pp
Under 3.565%vs55%+10pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes58%vs67%−9pp
No42%vs33%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

FSV Mainz 05

Confirmed · 3-1-4-2

  • R. Zentner — out (Hand Injury)
  • S. Widmer — out (Knee Injury)
  • B. Hollerbach — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • D. Kohr — out (Foot Injury)
  • Silas — out (Broken shinbone)
  • P. Nebel — out (Muscle Injury)
  • E. Martel — out (Knee Injury)

Eintracht Frankfurt

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

  • J. Maluze — out (Thigh Injury)
  • F. Chaibi — out (Illness)
  • A. Knauff — out (Muscle Injury)
  • O. Hojlund — out (Hip Injury)
  • M. Pimpong — doubtful (Illness)
  • J. Ngankam — out (Injury)
  • H. Larsson — out (Muscle Injury)
  • R. Doan — out (Muscle Injury)
  • N. Collins — out (Back Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

FSV Mainz 05WDWLW

  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Hamburger SV 5–0
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v SC Paderborn 07 0–0(xG 1.2–0.8)
  • Sat 16 May · A v FC Heidenheim 2–0
  • Sun 10 May · H v Union Berlin 1–3
  • Sun 3 May · A v FC St. Pauli 2–1

Eintracht FrankfurtLDDLL

  • Sun 6 Sep · H v FC Augsburg 1–4
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Union Berlin 3–3(xG 1.4–1.9)
  • Sat 16 May · H v VfB Stuttgart 2–2
  • Fri 8 May · A v Borussia Dortmund 2–3
  • Sat 2 May · H v Hamburger SV 1–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 have won 3 of their last 5.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of FSV Mainz 05's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of FSV Mainz 05's last 5.
  • FSV Mainz 05 kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt have won 0 of their last 5.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 5 of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 5 of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 10 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 4, with 4 drawn.

FSV Mainz 05 W–D–L
2–4–4
Over 2.5
4 of 10
Both scored
6 of 10
  • FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 FSV Mainz 05
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 3–0 FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 05

7Context

FSV Mainz 05

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Eintracht Frankfurt

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 54%.
How many goals are expected in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FSV Mainz 05's reported absences and doubts include R. Zentner, S. Widmer, B. Hollerbach, D. Kohr and 3 others. Eintracht Frankfurt's include J. Maluze, F. Chaibi, A. Knauff, O. Hojlund and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FSV Mainz 05 line up in a 3-1-4-2, Eintracht Frankfurt in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
In their last 10 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 4, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.