Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3
Borussia DortmundvSC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund
SC Paderborn 07·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.5–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (17%), then 2-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 finish on some other score 57% of the time.
| Bor / SC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Borussia Dortmund down the side and SC Paderborn 07 across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 43% against 71%.
What we think
- Borussia Dortmund56% · Match result
- Under 2.557% · Goals
- No53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 78% against a market price of 50% — 28 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 86% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 9 matches between them averaged 2.1 goals, and 2.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 9 for Borussia Dortmund, 6 for SC Paderborn 07.
Our forecast makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 73%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 77%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 43%, against the market’s 71% — a 28 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Borussia Dortmund a 77% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 78% home · 13% draw · 8% away
Now: 77% home · 14% draw · 9% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Borussia Dortmund
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- F. Mane — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Karetsas — out (Health problems)
- R. Bensebaini — out (Ribs Injury)
- J. Lerma — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Konstantelias — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Inacio — out (Red Card)
- N. Schlotterbeck — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Kaba — out (Injury)
- E. Can — out (Knee Injury)
SC Paderborn 07
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- S. Klaas — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Michel — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Eickel — out (Back Injury)
- N. Awortwie-Grant — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Gotze — out (Concussion)
- T. Gayret — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Borussia DortmundWWWWL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Hamburger SV 2–0(xG 1.4–0.7)
- Sat 16 May · A v Werder Bremen 2–0
- Fri 8 May · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2
- Sun 3 May · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1
SC Paderborn 07LDWD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v SC Freiburg 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v FSV Mainz 05 0–0(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Mon 25 May · H v VfL Wolfsburg 2–1
- Thu 21 May · A v VfL Wolfsburg 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of their last 5.
- Borussia Dortmund have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Borussia Dortmund's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Borussia Dortmund's last 5.
- Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 of their last 4.
- SC Paderborn 07 have scored in 1 of their last 4.
- 1 of SC Paderborn 07's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of SC Paderborn 07's last 4.
- SC Paderborn 07 kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Borussia Dortmund
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
SC Paderborn 07
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Harm Osmers, Germany
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?
- Our model makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 77%.
- How many goals are expected in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 43%, and under 2.5 at 57%.
- Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance, against 53% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?
- Borussia Dortmund's reported absences and doubts include F. Mane, K. Karetsas, R. Bensebaini, J. Lerma and 5 others. SC Paderborn 07's include S. Klaas, S. Michel, L. Eickel, N. Awortwie-Grant and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?
- Borussia Dortmund line up in a 3-4-2-1, SC Paderborn 07 in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.