Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3
FC AugsburgvBayer Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
Bayer Leverkusen·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–2.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Bay | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Augsburg down the side and Bayer Leverkusen across. These 98.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 47%.
What we think
- Bayer Leverkusen55% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 53% — 9 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.0 goals, and 4.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
- 13 players reported unavailable — 7 for FC Augsburg, 6 for Bayer Leverkusen.
- The price has moved 2.3% away from Bayer Leverkusen since it opened.
Our forecast makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, against the market’s 68% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Bayer Leverkusen a 52% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 24% home · 22% draw · 54% away
Now: 25% home · 23% draw · 52% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Bayer Leverkusen
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Augsburg
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Kade — out (Calf Injury)
- T. Schnitzer — out (Injury)
- S. Suso — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Sakar — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Jakic — out (Injury)
- S. Mounie — out (Injury)
- T. Breithaupt — out (Injury)
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- G. Doue — out (Muscle Injury)
- N. Tella — out (Injury)
- M. Terrier — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Eichhorn — out (Illness)
- M. Culbreath — out (Injury)
- E. Ben Seghir — out (Thigh Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC AugsburgWWLWW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Eintracht Frankfurt 4–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Schalke 04 3–0(xG 3.5–1.5)
- Sat 16 May · A v Union Berlin 0–4
- Sat 9 May · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1
- Sat 2 May · A v Werder Bremen 3–1
Bayer LeverkusenWLDLW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Union Berlin 4–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v SV Elversberg 2–3(xG 1.9–1.1)
- Sat 16 May · H v Hamburger SV 1–1
- Sat 9 May · A v VfB Stuttgart 1–3
- Sat 2 May · H v RB Leipzig 4–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Augsburg have won 4 of their last 5.
- FC Augsburg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Augsburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Augsburg's last 5.
- FC Augsburg kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 2 of their last 5.
- Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5.
- Bayer Leverkusen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen 6, with 0 drawn.
- FC Augsburg W–D–L
- 4–0–6
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 2–0 Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen
- FC Augsburg 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 FC Augsburg
- Bayer Leverkusen 5–1 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 1–4 Bayer Leverkusen
7Context
FC Augsburg
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Daniel Siebert, Germany
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- FC Augsburg's reported absences and doubts include A. Kade, T. Schnitzer, S. Suso, F. Sakar and 3 others. Bayer Leverkusen's include G. Doue, N. Tella, M. Terrier, K. Eichhorn and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- FC Augsburg line up in a 3-4-2-1, Bayer Leverkusen in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
- In their last 10 meetings, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen 6, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.