Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3
SC FreiburgvBorussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach·
5 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| SC / Bor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, SC Freiburg down the side and Borussia Mönchengladbach across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 34% against 40%.
What we think
- SC Freiburg49% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 66% against a market price of 60% — 6 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 3.6 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.1 goals.
- 13 players reported unavailable — 3 for SC Freiburg, 10 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Our forecast makes SC Freiburg the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 62% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives SC Freiburg a 57% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 22% draw · 21% away
Now: 57% home · 23% draw · 20% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
SC Freiburg
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Yamamoto — out (Injury)
- P. Osterhage — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Muslija — out (Knee Injury)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Z. Uno — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- D. Hashioka — out (Neck Injury)
- H. Bolin — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- T. Kleindienst — out (Red Card)
- N. Kuhn — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. C. Chiarodia — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Leopold — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Konoplya — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Cvancara — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Castrop — out (Shoulder Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SC FreiburgWWWLD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v SC Paderborn 07 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Werder Bremen 4–1(xG 1.9–0.5)
- Sat 16 May · H v RB Leipzig 4–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Hamburger SV 2–3
- Sun 3 May · H v VfL Wolfsburg 1–1
Borussia MönchengladbachLLWLW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v SV Elversberg 3–4
- Sat 29 Aug · A v RB Leipzig 0–3(xG 0.9–4.0)
- Sat 16 May · H v 1899 Hoffenheim 4–0
- Sat 9 May · A v FC Augsburg 1–3
- Sun 3 May · H v Borussia Dortmund 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- SC Freiburg have won 3 of their last 5.
- SC Freiburg have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of SC Freiburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of SC Freiburg's last 5.
- SC Freiburg kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2 of their last 5.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 5.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, SC Freiburg have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 5 drawn.
- SC Freiburg W–D–L
- 5–5–0
- Over 2.5
- 7 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- SC Freiburg 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC Freiburg
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–3 SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg 3–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg 0–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- SC Freiburg 3–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–6 SC Freiburg
7Context
SC Freiburg
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Richard Hempel, Germany
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
- Our model makes SC Freiburg the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
- SC Freiburg's reported absences and doubts include R. Yamamoto, P. Osterhage, F. Muslija. Borussia Mönchengladbach's include Z. Uno, D. Hashioka, H. Bolin, T. Kleindienst and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
- SC Freiburg line up in a 4-2-3-1, Borussia Mönchengladbach in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
- In their last 10 meetings, SC Freiburg have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 5 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.