Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3

1. FC KölnvWerder Bremen

·

1 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–11.7–1.3 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, 1. FC Köln goals down the side, Werder Bremen across
1. / Wer012345
066420.60.1
1812731.00.2
279630.80.2
345310.40.1
42210.60.20.0
50.60.70.50.20.10.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, 1. FC Köln down the side and Werder Bremen across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 79%, market 84%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 58%, market 62%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 34%, market 40%

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 34% against 40%.

What we think

  • 1. FC Köln46% · Match result
  • Over 2.558% · Goals
  • Yes57% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5

  • We make this 66% against a market price of 60% — 6 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.0 goals, and 2.9 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.3 goals.
  • 16 players reported unavailable — 6 for 1. FC Köln, 10 for Werder Bremen.

Our forecast makes 1. FC Köln the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 62% — a 4 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives 1. FC Köln a 46% chance. Our model makes it 46%.

1. FC KölnModel 46% [40%–53%]Market 46%
1. FC Köln:, our forecast 46%, between 40% and 53%, market 46%

2Market

Open: 46% home · 25% draw · 29% away

Now: 46% home · 25% draw · 28% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home46%vs46%0pp
Draw25%vs25%0pp
Away29%vs28%+1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.558%vs62%−4pp
Under 2.542%vs38%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs84%−5pp
Under 1.521%vs16%+5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.534%vs40%−6pp
Under 3.566%vs60%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes57%vs64%−7pp
No43%vs36%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

1. FC Köln

Confirmed · 4-5-1

  • P. Okon-Engstler — out (Injury)
  • S. El Mala — out (Illness)
  • L. Waldschmidt — out (Muscle Injury)
  • S. Sebulonsen — out (Muscle Injury)
  • T. Dallinga — out (Illness)
  • T. Hubers — out (Knee Injury)

Werder Bremen

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • M. N'Diaye — out (Groin Injury)
  • S. Lynen — out (Hip Injury)
  • J. Njinmah — out (Thigh Injury)
  • N. Stark — doubtful (Injury)
  • J. Stage — out (Muscle Injury)
  • Y. Regeer — doubtful (Injury)
  • O. Wojcik — out (Muscle Injury)
  • M. Weiser — out (Knee Injury)
  • K. Topp — out (Knee Injury)
  • F. Agu — out (Calf Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

1. FC KölnLWLLD

  • Fri 4 Sep · A v VfB Stuttgart 1–4
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2(xG 1.7–1.8)
  • Sat 16 May · A v Bayern München 1–5
  • Sun 10 May · H v FC Heidenheim 1–3
  • Sat 2 May · A v Union Berlin 2–2

Werder BremenWLLLL

  • Sat 5 Sep · H v RB Leipzig 3–1
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v SC Freiburg 1–4(xG 0.5–1.9)
  • Sat 16 May · H v Borussia Dortmund 0–2
  • Sat 9 May · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1
  • Sat 2 May · H v FC Augsburg 1–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

1. FC Köln
  • 1. FC Köln have won 1 of their last 5.
  • 1. FC Köln have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 5 of 1. FC Köln's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 5 of 1. FC Köln's last 5.
  • 1. FC Köln kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
Werder Bremen
  • Werder Bremen have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Werder Bremen have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Werder Bremen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Werder Bremen's last 5.
  • Werder Bremen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 6 meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Werder Bremen 2, with 2 drawn.

1. FC Köln W–D–L
2–2–2
Over 2.5
3 of 6
Both scored
5 of 6
  • 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen
  • Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC Köln
  • 1. FC Köln 0–1 Werder Bremen
  • Werder Bremen 2–1 1. FC Köln
  • Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC Köln
  • 1. FC Köln 7–1 Werder Bremen

7Context

1. FC Köln

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Werder Bremen

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Florian Exner, Germany

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
Our model makes 1. FC Köln the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
How many goals are expected in 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
1. FC Köln's reported absences and doubts include P. Okon-Engstler, S. El Mala, L. Waldschmidt, S. Sebulonsen and 2 others. Werder Bremen's include M. N'Diaye, S. Lynen, J. Njinmah, N. Stark and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
1. FC Köln line up in a 4-5-1, Werder Bremen in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen?
In their last 6 meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Werder Bremen 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.