Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4
Bayern MünchenvUnion Berlin
Bayern München
Union Berlin·
7 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
3–13.2–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 3–0 (9%), then 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Bayern München and Union Berlin finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 3–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bay / Uni | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Bayern München down the side and Union Berlin across. These 89.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 10.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 48% against 76%.
What we think
- Bayern München82% · Match result
- Over 2.572% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 52% against a market price of 24% — 28 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 91% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.8 goals, and 4.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.6 goals.
- 11 players reported unavailable — 3 for Bayern München, 8 for Union Berlin.
Our forecast makes Bayern München the most likely of the three results, at 82% (we would not be surprised by anything from 77% to 87%). Most likely is not likely: at 82% this result does not happen 18% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 93%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 72%, against the market’s 90% — a 18 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Bayern München a 93% chance. Our model makes it 82%.
2Market
Open: 92% home · 5% draw · 3% away
Now: 93% home · 5% draw · 2% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Bayern München
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Bayern München
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- S. Gnabry — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Musiala — out (Health problems)
- T. Buchmann — out (Knee Injury)
Union Berlin
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Imeri — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Juranovic — out (Illness)
- S. Nsoki — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Friedrich — out (Injury)
- F. Ronnow — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Ilic — out (Illness)
- O. Burke — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Markgraf — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Bayern MünchenWDWWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v SV Elversberg 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v FC Schalke 04 0–0
- Fri 28 Aug · H v VfB Stuttgart 5–1(xG 3.9–0.9)
- Sat 16 May · H v 1. FC Köln 5–1
- Sat 9 May · A v VfL Wolfsburg 1–0
Union BerlinLLDWW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v FC Schalke 04 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Bayer Leverkusen 0–4
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3(xG 1.9–1.4)
- Sat 16 May · H v FC Augsburg 4–0
- Sun 10 May · A v FSV Mainz 05 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Bayern München have won 4 of their last 5.
- Bayern München have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Bayern München's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Bayern München's last 5.
- Bayern München kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Union Berlin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Union Berlin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Union Berlin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Union Berlin's last 5.
- Union Berlin kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Bayern München have won 7, Union Berlin 0, with 3 drawn.
- Bayern München W–D–L
- 7–3–0
- Over 2.5
- 7 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- Bayern München 4–0 Union Berlin
- Union Berlin 2–2 Bayern München
- Union Berlin 1–1 Bayern München
- Bayern München 3–0 Union Berlin
- Union Berlin 1–5 Bayern München
- Bayern München 1–0 Union Berlin
- Bayern München 3–0 Union Berlin
- Union Berlin 1–1 Bayern München
- Bayern München 4–0 Union Berlin
- Union Berlin 2–5 Bayern München
7Context
Bayern München
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Union Berlin
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Allianz Arena, München · Referee: Benjamin Brand
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
- Our model makes Bayern München the most likely result at 82%. Most likely is not likely — at 82% it does not happen 18% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 93%.
- How many goals are expected in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 72%, and under 2.5 at 28%.
- Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
- Bayern München's reported absences and doubts include S. Gnabry, J. Musiala, T. Buchmann. Union Berlin's include K. Imeri, J. Juranovic, S. Nsoki, M. Friedrich and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
- Bayern München line up in a 4-2-3-1, Union Berlin in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
- In their last 10 meetings, Bayern München have won 7, Union Berlin 0, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.