Serie A · Regular Season - 5
MonzavSassuolo
Monza
Sassuolo·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Monza and Sassuolo finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mon / Sas | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Monza down the side and Sassuolo across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 77% against 79%.
What we think
- Monza38% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Monza the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 45%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Sassuolo the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 36%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (54%).
For comparison, the market gives Sassuolo a 36% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 31% home · 27% draw · 42% away
Now: 36% home · 28% draw · 36% away
Moved −6pp — the market moved away from Sassuolo
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Monza
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- I. Toure — out (Contusion)
- C. Ngonge — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Ziolkowski — out (Foot Injury)
- P. Ciurria — out (Inactive)
- G. Varela — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Zeballos — doubtful (Inactive)
- D. Thiam — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Pessina — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Mota — out (Suspended)
- L. Colombo — out (Injury)
- E. Akinsanmiro — out (Muscle Injury)
Sassuolo
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Idzes — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Bakola — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- C. Volpato — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Walukiewicz — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Pinamonti — out (Injury)
- E. Pieragnolo — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Paz — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Kone — out (Broken Leg)
- F. Cande — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Boloca — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Berardi — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MonzaLDLLL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Lecce 2–3(xG 2.8–1.1)
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Parma 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Udinese 2–3(xG 1.6–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Inter 1–4
- Sat 24 May · A v AC Milan 0–2
SassuoloWDWLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Juventus 3–2(xG 1.0–1.1)
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Bologna 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Torino 2–1(xG 1.1–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atalanta 1–2(xG 2.7–0.9)
- Sun 24 May · A v Parma 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Monza have won 0 of their last 5.
- Monza have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Monza's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Monza's last 5.
- Monza kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Sassuolo have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sassuolo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sassuolo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sassuolo's last 5.
- Sassuolo kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Monza have won 3, Sassuolo 0, with 1 drawn.
- Monza W–D–L
- 3–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 4
- Both scored
- 2 of 4
- Monza 1–0 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo 0–1 Monza
- Sassuolo 1–2 Monza
- Monza 1–1 Sassuolo
7Context
Monza
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sassuolo
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
U-Power Stadium, Monza · Referee: Daniele Perenzoni, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Monza vs Sassuolo?
- Our model makes Monza the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market instead favours Sassuolo at 36%.
- How many goals are expected in Monza vs Sassuolo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Monza vs Sassuolo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Monza vs Sassuolo?
- Monza's reported absences and doubts include I. Toure, C. Ngonge, J. Ziolkowski, P. Ciurria and 7 others. Sassuolo's include J. Idzes, D. Bakola, C. Volpato, S. Walukiewicz and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Monza vs Sassuolo?
- Monza line up in a 3-4-2-1, Sassuolo in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sassuolo?
- In their last 4 meetings, Monza have won 3, Sassuolo 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.