Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 9

Newells Old BoysvVelez Sarsfield

·

1 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Velez Sarsfield a 34% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Velez SarsfieldModel pendingMarket 34%
Velez Sarsfield:, no forecast published, market 34%

2Market

Open: 33% home · 32% draw · 35% away

Now: 34% home · 33% draw · 34% away

Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Velez Sarsfield

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs34%
Draw—vs33%
Away—vs34%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs37%
Under 2.5—vs63%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs63%
Under 1.5—vs37%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs16%
Under 3.5—vs84%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs44%
No—vs56%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Newells Old Boys

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Velez Sarsfield

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Newells Old BoysDDWWL

  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Rosario Central 1–1
  • Mon 31 Aug · A v Estudiantes L.P. 0–0(xG 1.1–2.2)
  • Sun 23 Aug · H v Banfield 2–1
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v Deportivo Riestra 2–0
  • Sun 9 Aug · A v Defensa Y Justicia 1–2

Velez SarsfieldWDDDD

  • Sun 6 Sep · H v Estudiantes L.P. 1–0
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Deportivo Riestra 1–1(xG 0.5–0.6)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v River Plate 2–2
  • Mon 17 Aug · H v Defensa Y Justicia 1–1
  • Sat 8 Aug · A v Boca Juniors 1–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Newells Old Boys
  • Newells Old Boys have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Newells Old Boys have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Newells Old Boys's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Newells Old Boys's last 5.
  • Newells Old Boys kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
Velez Sarsfield
  • Velez Sarsfield have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Velez Sarsfield have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Velez Sarsfield's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Velez Sarsfield's last 5.
  • Velez Sarsfield kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.

Newells Old Boys W–D–L
0–1–0
Over 2.5
0 of 1
Both scored
1 of 1
  • Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Newells Old Boys

7Context

Newells Old Boys

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Velez Sarsfield

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario · Referee: Nicolas Ramirez, Argentina

8Red flags