Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
Academico ViseuvVitória SC
Academico Viseu
Vitória SC·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Academico Viseu and Vitória SC finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Aca / Vit | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Academico Viseu down the side and Vitória SC across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 44%.
What we think
- Academico Viseu44% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Academico Viseu the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Vitória SC the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 24%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 44% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Vitória SC a 47% chance. Our model makes it 28%.
2Market
Open: 25% home · 28% draw · 47% away
Now: 24% home · 28% draw · 47% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Academico Viseu
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Academico Viseu
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Vitória SC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Academico ViseuWLDLD
- Sun 6 Sep · A v GIL Vicente 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v FC Porto 0–3(xG 0.8–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Maritimo 2–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Santa Clara 0–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Benfica 2–2
Vitória SCDLWLL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Casa Pia 0–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v SC Braga 0–1(xG 0.2–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Nacional 1–0
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Sporting CP 2–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Arouca 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Academico Viseu have won 1 of their last 5.
- Academico Viseu have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Academico Viseu's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Academico Viseu's last 5.
- Academico Viseu kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Vitória SC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Vitória SC have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Vitória SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Vitória SC's last 5.
- Vitória SC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Academico Viseu
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Vitória SC
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio Municipal do Fontelo, Viseu · Referee: Carlos Macedo, Portugal
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC?
- Our model makes Academico Viseu the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market instead favours Vitória SC at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC?
- Academico Viseu line up in a 4-1-4-1, Vitória SC in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.