Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
NacionalvAlverca
Nacional
Alverca·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.3–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Nacional and Alverca finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Nac / Alv | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Nacional down the side and Alverca across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Nacional39% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Nacional the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Nacional
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Alverca
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NacionalLLWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Estrela 2–3(xG 0.8–2.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vitória SC 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Estoril 2–0
- Mon 10 Aug · A v Santa Clara 2–2
AlvercaDLDL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Santa Clara 1–1(xG 0.4–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Sporting CP 1–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Estrela 2–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v FC Porto 0–2
5Head-to-head
Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
No prior meetings on record.
6Context
Nacional
Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d
Alverca
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Venue unconfirmed
7Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Nacional vs Alverca?
- Our model makes Nacional the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
- Will both teams score in Nacional vs Alverca?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.