Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
NacionalvAlverca
Nacional
Alverca·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Nacional and Alverca finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Nac / Alv | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Nacional down the side and Alverca across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 47%.
What we think
- Nacional39% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Nacional the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Alverca the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 47% — a 3 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Alverca a 36% chance. Our model makes it 33%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 29% draw · 35% away
Now: 35% home · 29% draw · 36% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Nacional
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Nacional
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
Alverca
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NacionalLLLWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Sporting CP 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Estrela 2–3(xG 0.8–2.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vitória SC 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Estoril 2–0
- Mon 10 Aug · A v Santa Clara 2–2
AlvercaLDLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v SC Braga 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Santa Clara 1–1(xG 0.4–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Sporting CP 1–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Estrela 2–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v FC Porto 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Nacional have won 1 of their last 5.
- Nacional have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Nacional's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Nacional's last 5.
- Nacional kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Alverca have won 0 of their last 5.
- Alverca have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Alverca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Alverca's last 5.
- Alverca kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Nacional
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Alverca
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal · Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Nacional vs Alverca?
- Our model makes Nacional the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Alverca at 36%.
- How many goals are expected in Nacional vs Alverca?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Nacional vs Alverca?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Nacional vs Alverca?
- Nacional line up in a 3-4-3, Alverca in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.