Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
Casa PiavFC Porto
Casa Pia
FC Porto·
1 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–30.6–1.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (15%), then 0-2 (15%), 1-1 (10%). Casa Pia and FC Porto finish on some other score 60% of the time. We show 0–3 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Cas / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Casa Pia down the side and FC Porto across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 56%.
What we think
- FC Porto68% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- No52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Porto the most likely of the three results, at 68% (we would not be surprised by anything from 62% to 74%). Most likely is not likely: at 68% this result does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 79%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 56% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Porto a 79% chance. Our model makes it 68%.
2Market
Open: 7% home · 16% draw · 77% away
Now: 6% home · 14% draw · 79% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards FC Porto
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Casa Pia
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
FC Porto
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Casa PiaDLLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Vitória SC 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Moreirense 0–1(xG 0.8–0.3)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v GIL Vicente 0–2
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Benfica 0–7
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Maritimo 0–1
FC PortoWWWWW
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Moreirense 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Academico Viseu 3–0(xG 1.5–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Arouca 2–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Rio Ave 2–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Alverca 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Casa Pia have won 0 of their last 5.
- Casa Pia have scored in 0 of their last 5.
- 1 of Casa Pia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Casa Pia's last 5.
- Casa Pia kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- FC Porto have won 5 of their last 5.
- FC Porto have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of FC Porto's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of FC Porto's last 5.
- FC Porto kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Casa Pia
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Porto
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior · Referee: Jose Bessa, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
- Our model makes FC Porto the most likely result at 68%. Most likely is not likely — at 68% it does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 79%.
- How many goals are expected in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, against 52% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
- Casa Pia line up in a 4-2-3-1, FC Porto in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.