Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7
Sporting CPvArouca
Sporting CP
Arouca·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
3–13.1–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 3–0 (11%), then 2-0 (11%), 4-0 (9%). Sporting CP and Arouca finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 3–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Spo / Aro | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sporting CP down the side and Arouca across. These 90.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 9.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 85% against 88%.
What we think
- Sporting CP84% · Match result
- Over 2.567% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.10 at Bet365The number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 52% against a market price of 45% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.9 goals, and 2.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 5 of those 10.
Our forecast makes Sporting CP the most likely of the three results, at 84% (we would not be surprised by anything from 78% to 89%). Most likely is not likely: at 84% this result does not happen 16% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 83%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 67%, which is what the market has it at too (67%).
For comparison, the market gives Sporting CP a 83% chance. Our model makes it 84%.
2Market
Open: 83% home · 11% draw · 6% away
Now: 83% home · 11% draw · 6% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sporting CP
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Arouca
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sporting CPDWWWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Famalicao 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Nacional 2–0
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Rio Ave 4–0(xG 1.7–0.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Alverca 3–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Vitória SC 3–2
AroucaLDWLW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Santa Clara 1–2
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Estoril 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Maritimo 2–1(xG 1.6–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v FC Porto 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Moreirense 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sporting CP have won 4 of their last 5.
- Sporting CP have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sporting CP's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sporting CP's last 5.
- Sporting CP kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Arouca have won 2 of their last 5.
- Arouca have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Arouca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Arouca's last 5.
- Arouca kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sporting CP
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Arouca
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio da Luz, Lisbon · Referee: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sporting CP vs Arouca?
- Our model makes Sporting CP the most likely result at 84%. Most likely is not likely — at 84% it does not happen 16% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 83%.
- How many goals are expected in Sporting CP vs Arouca?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 67%, and under 2.5 at 33%.
- Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Arouca?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sporting CP vs Arouca?
- Sporting CP line up in a 4-2-3-1, Arouca in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.