Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7
NacionalvFamalicao
Nacional
Famalicao·
0 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Nacional and Famalicao finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Nac / Fam | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Nacional down the side and Famalicao across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Famalicao42% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Famalicao the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Nacional
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Famalicao
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NacionalLLLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Alverca 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Sporting CP 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Estrela 2–3(xG 0.8–2.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vitória SC 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Estoril 2–0
FamalicaoDDDLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Sporting CP 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Estrela 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v GIL Vicente 0–0(xG 0.2–0.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Santa Clara 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Maritimo 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Nacional have won 1 of their last 5.
- Nacional have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Nacional's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Nacional's last 5.
- Nacional kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Famalicao have won 0 of their last 5.
- Famalicao have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Famalicao's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Famalicao's last 5.
- Famalicao kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Nacional
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Famalicao
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal · Referee: Gustavo Correia, Portugal
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Nacional vs Famalicao?
- Our model makes Famalicao the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Nacional vs Famalicao?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Nacional vs Famalicao?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.