Who will win Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?

Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian the most likely result at 69%. Most likely is not likely — at 69% it does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 67%.

Will both teams score in Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?

Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?

Heart Of Midlothian line up in a 4-2-3-1, Dundee in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Premiership · Regular Season - 6

Heart Of MidlothianvDundee

Sun 6 Sep · 14:00 UTC

2 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Heart Of Midlothian69% · Match result
Over 1.577% · Goals
Yes50% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Heart Of Midlothian the most likely of the three results, at 69% (we would not be surprised by anything from 57% to 80%). Most likely is not likely: at 69% this result does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 67%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Heart Of Midlothian a 67% chance. Our model makes it 69%.

Heart Of MidlothianModel 69% [57%–80%]Market 67%

2Market

Open: 64% home · 21% draw · 15% away

Now: 67% home · 20% draw · 13% away

Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Heart Of Midlothian

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home69%vs67%+2pp

Draw20%vs20%0pp

Away11%vs13%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs61%

Under 2.5—vs39%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.577%vs84%−7pp

Under 1.523%vs16%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs39%

Under 3.5—vs61%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes50%vs55%−5pp

No50%vs45%+5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Heart Of Midlothian

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

Dundee

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Heart Of MidlothianWWWL

Thu 3 Sep · A v Hibernian 3–1
Sat 29 Aug · H v ST Johnstone 2–1(xG 1.7–1.2)
Sun 9 Aug · H v Dundee Utd 4–0
Sat 1 Aug · A v Aberdeen 1–2

DundeeDLWWL

Wed 2 Sep · H v ST Johnstone 1–1
Sun 30 Aug · H v Hibernian 1–2(xG 0.8–2.4)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Dundee Utd 2–0
Sat 8 Aug · H v Aberdeen 2–0
Mon 3 Aug · A v Celtic 0–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Heart Of Midlothian

Heart Of Midlothian have won 3 of their last 4.
Heart Of Midlothian have scored in 4 of their last 4.
4 of Heart Of Midlothian's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Heart Of Midlothian's last 4.
Heart Of Midlothian kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

Dundee

Dundee have won 2 of their last 5.
Dundee have scored in 4 of their last 5.
1 of Dundee's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Dundee's last 5.
Dundee kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Heart Of Midlothian

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Dundee

Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh · Referee: C. Graham

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.

Common questions

Who will win Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?: Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian the most likely result at 69%. Most likely is not likely — at 69% it does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 67%.
Will both teams score in Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?: Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?: Heart Of Midlothian line up in a 4-2-3-1, Dundee in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.