Premiership · Regular Season - 3
MotherwellvAberdeen
Motherwell
Aberdeen·
0 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.7–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Motherwell and Aberdeen finish on some other score 60% of the time.
| Mot / Abe | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Motherwell down the side and Aberdeen across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 49% against 56%.
What we think
- Motherwell62% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Motherwell the most likely of the three results, at 62% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 74%). Most likely is not likely: at 62% this result does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 56% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Motherwell a 52% chance. Our model makes it 62%.
2Market
Open: 52% home · 25% draw · 23% away
Now: 52% home · 25% draw · 23% away
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Motherwell
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Aberdeen
Confirmed · 5-3-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MotherwellLWDDW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Rangers 0–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Dundee Utd 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v ST Mirren 3–3(xG 2.2–2.3)
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Falkirk 0–0
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Hibernian 2–1
AberdeenDLLLW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Kilmarnock 0–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Celtic 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Rangers 0–1(xG 0.5–1.8)
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Dundee 0–2
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Heart Of Midlothian 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Motherwell have won 2 of their last 5.
- Motherwell have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Motherwell's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Motherwell's last 5.
- Motherwell kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Aberdeen have won 1 of their last 5.
- Aberdeen have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 2 of Aberdeen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Aberdeen's last 5.
- Aberdeen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Motherwell
Rest: 10 days · 2 matches in 14d
Aberdeen
Rest: 10 days · 2 matches in 14d
Fir Park, Motherwell
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
- Our model makes Motherwell the most likely result at 62%. Most likely is not likely — at 62% it does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
- Motherwell line up in a 4-2-3-1, Aberdeen in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.