Premiership · Regular Season - 3
FalkirkvHeart Of Midlothian
Falkirk
Heart Of Midlothian·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (10%). Falkirk and Heart Of Midlothian finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Fal / Hea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Falkirk down the side and Heart Of Midlothian across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 47% against 55%.
What we think
- Heart Of Midlothian45% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Heart Of Midlothian the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, against the market’s 55% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Heart Of Midlothian a 49% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 25% home · 26% draw · 49% away
Now: 26% home · 26% draw · 49% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Falkirk
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Falkirk
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Heart Of Midlothian
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FalkirkDLLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Dundee Utd 1–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Rangers 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Celtic 1–2(xG 0.5–2.9)
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Motherwell 0–0
- Sat 1 Aug · H v ST Mirren 0–2
Heart Of MidlothianWWWWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Dundee 2–1
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Hibernian 3–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v ST Johnstone 2–1(xG 1.7–1.2)
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Dundee Utd 4–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Aberdeen 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Falkirk have won 0 of their last 5.
- Falkirk have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Falkirk's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Falkirk's last 5.
- Falkirk kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Heart Of Midlothian have won 4 of their last 5.
- Heart Of Midlothian have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Heart Of Midlothian's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Heart Of Midlothian's last 5.
- Heart Of Midlothian kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Falkirk
Rest: 10 days · 2 matches in 14d
Heart Of Midlothian
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Falkirk line up in a 4-2-3-1, Heart Of Midlothian in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.