Premiership · Regular Season - 3
HibernianvKilmarnock
Hibernian
Kilmarnock·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Hibernian and Kilmarnock finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Hib / Kil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Hibernian down the side and Kilmarnock across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 42%.
What we think
- Hibernian61% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Hibernian the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 64% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Hibernian a 68% chance. Our model makes it 61%.
2Market
Open: 64% home · 21% draw · 15% away
Now: 68% home · 19% draw · 12% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards Hibernian
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Hibernian
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Kilmarnock
Confirmed · 3-4-1-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
HibernianLLWWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v ST Johnstone 1–2
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Heart Of Midlothian 1–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Dundee 2–1(xG 2.4–0.8)
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Rangers 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Motherwell 1–2
KilmarnockDLLLL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Aberdeen 0–0
- Wed 2 Sep · H v ST Mirren 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Dundee Utd 0–4(xG 1.0–3.5)
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Celtic 1–5
- Sun 2 Aug · A v ST Johnstone 3–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Hibernian have won 2 of their last 5.
- Hibernian have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Hibernian's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Hibernian's last 5.
- Hibernian kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Kilmarnock have won 0 of their last 5.
- Kilmarnock have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Kilmarnock's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Kilmarnock's last 5.
- Kilmarnock kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Hibernian
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Kilmarnock
Rest: 10 days · 2 matches in 14d
Easter Road, Edinburgh
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
- Our model makes Hibernian the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
- How many goals are expected in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
- Hibernian line up in a 4-1-4-1, Kilmarnock in a 3-4-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.