Championship · Regular Season - 8
Bristol CityvWatford
Bristol City
Watford·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Bristol City and Watford finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bri / Wat | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Bristol City down the side and Watford across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 29%.
What we think
- Bristol City43% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Bristol City the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Bristol City a 51% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away
Now: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Bristol City
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Dickie — out (Injury)
- B. De Keersmaecker — out (Shoulder Injury)
- G. Tanner — doubtful (Knock)
- E. Adebayo — out (Inactive)
- A. Randell — out (Red Card)
- C. Pring — out (Ankle Injury)
- O. Thomas — out (Injury)
- L. McNally — out (Knee Injury)
Watford
Confirmed · 3-4-1-2
- J. Zemura — out (Inactive)
- B. Mlacic — out (Inactive)
- J. Ngakia — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Grieves — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- E. Bove — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Akomeah — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Boadu — out (Injury)
- O. H. Traore — out (Injury)
- M. Bola — out (Hamstring Injury)
- K. Baah — out (Knock)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Bristol CityLLWWW
- Tue 15 Sep · H v Lincoln 0–1
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Southampton 1–4
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Burnley 2–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Preston 3–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Portsmouth 2–1(xG 0.6–1.4)
WatfordLWLLD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Stoke City 1–2
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Preston 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v West Brom 0–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Swansea 0–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v West Ham 1–1(xG 1.3–0.7)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Bristol City have won 3 of their last 5.
- Bristol City have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Bristol City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bristol City's last 5.
- Bristol City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Watford have won 1 of their last 5.
- Watford have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Watford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Watford's last 5.
- Watford kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Bristol City
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Watford
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol · Referee: Oliver Langford
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Bristol City vs Watford?
- Our model makes Bristol City the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- How many goals are expected in Bristol City vs Watford?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Watford?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Bristol City vs Watford?
- Bristol City's reported absences and doubts include R. Dickie, B. De Keersmaecker, G. Tanner, E. Adebayo and 4 others. Watford's include J. Zemura, B. Mlacic, J. Ngakia, J. Grieves and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Bristol City vs Watford?
- Bristol City line up in a 4-2-3-1, Watford in a 3-4-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.