Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5
AngersvEstac Troyes
Angers
Estac Troyes·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Angers and Estac Troyes finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Ang / Est | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Angers down the side and Estac Troyes across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Angers39% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Angers the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Angers
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Mouton — out (Inactive)
- H. Belkebla — out (Thigh Injury)
Estac Troyes
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Phliponeau — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Ifnaoui — out (Injury)
- P. Gozzi — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Titi — out (Injury)
- A. Fatah — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Boura — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AngersDLWLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Le Havre 0–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Rennes 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Auxerre 3–1(xG 1.6–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Lille 0–2(xG 2.0–1.2)
- Sun 17 May · A v Stade Brestois 29 1–1
Estac TroyesLLWDD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Lille 0–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Strasbourg 2–6
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Lorient 2–1(xG 1.6–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Paris FC 0–0
- Sat 3 Jun · H v Lille 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Angers have won 1 of their last 5.
- Angers have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Angers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Angers's last 5.
- Angers kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Estac Troyes have won 1 of their last 5.
- Estac Troyes have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Estac Troyes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Estac Troyes's last 5.
- Estac Troyes kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Angers have won 2, Estac Troyes 1, with 1 drawn.
- Angers W–D–L
- 2–1–1
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 4
- Both scored
- 4 of 4
- Angers 2–1 Estac Troyes
- Estac Troyes 3–1 Angers
- Angers 2–1 Estac Troyes
- Estac Troyes 1–1 Angers
7Context
Angers
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estac Troyes
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers · Referee: Azzedine Souifi, France
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Angers vs Estac Troyes?
- Our model makes Angers the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Angers vs Estac Troyes?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Angers vs Estac Troyes?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Angers vs Estac Troyes?
- Angers's reported absences and doubts include L. Mouton, H. Belkebla. Estac Troyes's include A. Phliponeau, M. Ifnaoui, P. Gozzi, Y. Titi and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Angers vs Estac Troyes?
- Angers line up in a 4-2-3-1, Estac Troyes in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Estac Troyes?
- In their last 4 meetings, Angers have won 2, Estac Troyes 1, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.