Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5
LyonvRennes
Lyon
Rennes·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Lyon and Rennes finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lyo / Ren | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lyon down the side and Rennes across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Lyon47% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes61% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Lyon the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lyon
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Kluivert — out (Inactive)
- N. Tagliafico — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. de Carvalho — out (Inactive)
- M. Ouedraogo — out (Inactive)
- K. Nakamura — out (Coach's decision)
- S. Kango — out (Inactive)
- A. Hamdani — out (Inactive)
- A. Gomes Rodriguez — out (Inactive)
- J. Duranville — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Niakhate — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Merah — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Maitland-Niles — out (Rest)
- Abner Vinicius — out (Rest)
- N. Kamara — out (Inactive)
- R. Himbert — out (Inactive)
Rennes
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- G. Oliveira — out (Inactive)
- A. Nordin — out (Inactive)
- D. Cisse — out (Inactive)
- A. Ait Boudlal — out (Inactive)
- B. Samba — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Fofana — out (Inactive)
- M. Camara — out (Yellow Cards)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LyonDWDWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Paris FC 0–0
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Auxerre 3–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Le Havre 1–1(xG 1.7–0.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Toulouse 2–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Lens 0–4
RennesWWWDL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Marseille 1–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Angers 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Le Mans 3–2(xG 2.7–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–2(xG 0.9–2.2)
- Sun 17 May · A v Marseille 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lyon have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lyon have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lyon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lyon's last 5.
- Lyon kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Rennes have won 3 of their last 5.
- Rennes have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Rennes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Rennes's last 5.
- Rennes kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Lyon have won 4, Rennes 6, with 0 drawn.
- Lyon W–D–L
- 4–0–6
- Over 2.5
- 9 of 10
- Both scored
- 8 of 10
- Lyon 4–2 Rennes
- Rennes 3–1 Lyon
- Lyon 4–1 Rennes
- Rennes 3–0 Lyon
- Lyon 2–3 Rennes
- Rennes 0–1 Lyon
- Lyon 3–1 Rennes
- Rennes 3–2 Lyon
- Lyon 2–4 Rennes
- Rennes 4–1 Lyon
7Context
Lyon
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Rennes
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu · Referee: Mathieu Vernice, France
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Lyon vs Rennes?
- Our model makes Lyon the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Lyon vs Rennes?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in Lyon vs Rennes?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Lyon vs Rennes?
- Lyon's reported absences and doubts include R. Kluivert, N. Tagliafico, M. de Carvalho, M. Ouedraogo and 11 others. Rennes's include G. Oliveira, A. Nordin, D. Cisse, A. Ait Boudlal and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lyon vs Rennes?
- Lyon line up in a 4-2-3-1, Rennes in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Rennes?
- In their last 10 meetings, Lyon have won 4, Rennes 6, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 8.