Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5
Le MansvLorient
Le Mans
Lorient·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Le Mans and Lorient finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Le / Lor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Le Mans down the side and Lorient across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Lorient37% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Lorient the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Le Mans
Confirmed · 3-1-4-2
- N. Kocik — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Rossignol — out (Coach's decision)
- L. Buades — out (Knock)
- E. Colas — out (Injury)
- S. Yohou — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Quarshie — out (Coach's decision)
- W. Harhouz — out (Coach's decision)
- T. Eyoum — out (Coach's decision)
- D. Sidibe — out (Red Card)
- H. Diallo — out (Inactive)
- Y. Larouci — out (Concussion)
- R. Bamba — out (Loan agreement)
- H. Voyer — out (Yellow Cards)
Lorient
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Mbamba — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Fadiga — out (Injury)
- M. Bamba — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Le MansDDLD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Lens 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Nice 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Rennes 2–3(xG 3.0–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Stade Brestois 29 2–2
LorientDWLDL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Toulouse 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Lens 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Estac Troyes 1–2(xG 1.1–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Nice 0–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Le Havre 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Le Mans have won 0 of their last 4.
- Le Mans have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 3 of Le Mans's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Le Mans's last 4.
- Le Mans kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Lorient have won 1 of their last 5.
- Lorient have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lorient's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lorient's last 5.
- Lorient kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Le Mans
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lorient
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans · Referee: Geoffrey Kubler, French Guiana
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Le Mans vs Lorient?
- Our model makes Lorient the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Le Mans vs Lorient?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Lorient?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Le Mans vs Lorient?
- Le Mans's reported absences and doubts include N. Kocik, M. Rossignol, L. Buades, E. Colas and 9 others. Lorient's include N. Mbamba, B. Fadiga, M. Bamba. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Le Mans vs Lorient?
- Le Mans line up in a 3-1-4-2, Lorient in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.