Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5
ToulousevLe Havre
Toulouse
Le Havre·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (12%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Toulouse and Le Havre finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Tou / Le | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Toulouse down the side and Le Havre across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Toulouse54% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Toulouse the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Toulouse
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Nicolaisen — out (Calf Injury)
- G. Restes — out (Injury)
- Y. Gboho — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Donnum — out (Personal Reasons)
- N. Sigur — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Vossah — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Francis — out (Muscle Injury)
Le Havre
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. Pembele — out (Inactive)
- R. Ndiaye — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Mwanga — out (Red Card)
- L. Mpasi-Nzau — out (Injury)
- P. Argney — out (Injury)
- S. Zagadou — out (Injury)
- A. Toure — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Mambimbi — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ToulouseDLDLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Lorient 2–2
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Lille 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Stade Brestois 29 2–2(xG 1.1–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Lyon 0–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Nantes 0–0
Le HavreDLDLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Angers 0–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Stade Brestois 29 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Lyon 1–1(xG 0.7–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Monaco 0–1(xG 0.6–1.4)
- Sun 17 May · A v Lorient 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Toulouse have won 0 of their last 5.
- Toulouse have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Toulouse's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Toulouse's last 5.
- Toulouse kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Le Havre have won 1 of their last 5.
- Le Havre have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Le Havre's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Le Havre's last 5.
- Le Havre kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Toulouse have won 2, Le Havre 3, with 1 drawn.
- Toulouse W–D–L
- 2–1–3
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 6
- Both scored
- 3 of 6
- Le Havre 2–1 Toulouse
- Toulouse 0–0 Le Havre
- Le Havre 1–4 Toulouse
- Toulouse 2–0 Le Havre
- Le Havre 1–0 Toulouse
- Toulouse 1–2 Le Havre
7Context
Toulouse
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Le Havre
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse · Referee: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Toulouse vs Le Havre?
- Our model makes Toulouse the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
- Toulouse's reported absences and doubts include R. Nicolaisen, G. Restes, Y. Gboho, A. Donnum and 3 others. Le Havre's include T. Pembele, R. Ndiaye, J. Mwanga, L. Mpasi-Nzau and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
- Toulouse line up in a 4-2-3-1, Le Havre in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
- In their last 6 meetings, Toulouse have won 2, Le Havre 3, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.