Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5
MonacovLens
Monaco
Lens·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Monaco and Lens finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mon / Len | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Monaco down the side and Lens across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 61% against 59%.
What we think
- Monaco39% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes61% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Monaco the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, which is what the market has it at too (59%).
For comparison, the market gives Monaco a 48% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 25% draw · 27% away
Now: 48% home · 25% draw · 27% away
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Monaco
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. Minamino — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Teze — out (Injury)
- A. Soubeir — out (Injury)
- S. Idumbo — out (Groin Injury)
- M. Biereth — out (Inactive)
- M. Coulibaly — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Fati — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Salisu — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Mawissa — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Diop — out (Injury)
- F. Balogun — out (Injury)
- M. Abline — out (Foot Injury)
Lens
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Y. Titraoui — out (Injury)
- S. Sagnan — out (Red Card)
- M. Nawrocki — out (Injury)
- N. Celik — out (Injury)
- J. Gradit — out (Thigh Injury)
- O. Edouard — out (Personal Reasons)
- J. Chavez — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Baidoo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Antonio — out (Red Card)
- S. Abdulhamid — out (Contusion)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MonacoDWWWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Strasbourg 1–1
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Paris Saint Germain 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Marseille 2–0(xG 1.5–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Le Havre 1–0(xG 1.4–0.6)
- Sun 17 May · A v Strasbourg 4–5
LensDLLWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Le Mans 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Lorient 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Strasbourg 1–2(xG 2.9–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Auxerre 5–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Lyon 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Monaco have won 3 of their last 5.
- Monaco have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Monaco's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Monaco's last 5.
- Monaco kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Lens have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lens have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Lens's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Lens's last 5.
- Lens kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Monaco have won 3, Lens 5, with 2 drawn.
- Monaco W–D–L
- 3–2–5
- Over 2.5
- 8 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Lens 2–3 Monaco
- Monaco 1–4 Lens
- Lens 4–0 Monaco
- Monaco 1–1 Lens
- Lens 2–3 Monaco
- Monaco 3–0 Lens
- Lens 3–0 Monaco
- Monaco 1–4 Lens
- Lens 2–2 Monaco
- Monaco 0–2 Lens
7Context
Monaco
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lens
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Louis II, Monaco · Referee: Clement Turpin, France
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Monaco vs Lens?
- Our model makes Monaco the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in Monaco vs Lens?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lens?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Monaco vs Lens?
- Monaco's reported absences and doubts include T. Minamino, J. Teze, A. Soubeir, S. Idumbo and 8 others. Lens's include Y. Titraoui, S. Sagnan, M. Nawrocki, N. Celik and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Monaco vs Lens?
- Monaco line up in a 3-4-2-1, Lens in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lens?
- In their last 10 meetings, Monaco have won 3, Lens 5, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.