Serie A · Regular Season - 4
GenoavFrosinone
Genoa
Frosinone·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Genoa and Frosinone finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Gen / Fro | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Genoa down the side and Frosinone across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 31%.
What we think
- Genoa47% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Genoa the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, which is what the market has it at too (53%).
For comparison, the market gives Genoa a 43% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 46% home · 28% draw · 26% away
Now: 43% home · 29% draw · 29% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Genoa
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Genoa
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- E. Havel — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Vasquez — out (Red Card)
- L. Venturino — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Drameh — out (Inactive)
- H. J. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)
Frosinone
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- F. Grillitsch — out (Thigh Injury)
- F. Ghedjemis — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GenoaLLLLL
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Como 1–4
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Lazio 0–1(xG 0.6–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Napoli 0–2
- Sun 24 May · A v Lecce 0–1
- Sun 17 May · H v AC Milan 1–2
FrosinoneWWLLW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Venezia 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Fiorentina 3–0(xG 1.1–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Juventus 0–1(xG 0.4–2.2)
- Sun 26 May · H v Udinese 0–1
- Sun 19 May · A v Monza 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Genoa have won 0 of their last 5.
- Genoa have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Genoa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Genoa's last 5.
- Genoa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5.
- Frosinone have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Frosinone's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Frosinone's last 5.
- Frosinone kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Genoa have won 0, Frosinone 1, with 1 drawn.
- Genoa W–D–L
- 0–1–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- Genoa 1–1 Frosinone
- Frosinone 2–1 Genoa
7Context
Genoa
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Frosinone
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Luigi Ferraris, Genova · Referee: Antonio Rapuano, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Genoa vs Frosinone?
- Our model makes Genoa the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Genoa vs Frosinone?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Genoa vs Frosinone?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Genoa vs Frosinone?
- Genoa's reported absences and doubts include E. Havel, J. Vasquez, L. Venturino, C. Drameh and 1 other. Frosinone's include F. Grillitsch, F. Ghedjemis. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Genoa vs Frosinone?
- Genoa line up in a 3-5-2, Frosinone in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Frosinone?
- In their last 2 meetings, Genoa have won 0, Frosinone 1, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.