Serie A · Regular Season - 4
LaziovAC Milan
Lazio
AC Milan·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Lazio and AC Milan finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Laz / AC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lazio down the side and AC Milan across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 52% against 43%.
What we think
- AC Milan38% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 76% against a market price of 69% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 76% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.3 goals, and 2.7 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.3 goals.
- 16 players reported unavailable — 10 for Lazio, 6 for AC Milan.
- The price has moved 3.6% towards AC Milan since it opened.
Our forecast makes AC Milan the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 44%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, against the market’s 43% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives AC Milan a 45% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 29% home · 30% draw · 42% away
Now: 25% home · 29% draw · 45% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards AC Milan
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lazio
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- D. Doekhi — out (Hand Injury)
- F. Dele-Bashiru — out (Muscle Injury)
- N. Rovella — out (Injury)
- D. Cataldi — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Sutalo — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- L. Pellegrini — out (Injury)
- A. Marusic — out (Muscle Injury)
- Patric — out (Ankle Injury)
- S. Gigot — out (Inactive)
- A. Furlanetto — out (Knee Injury)
AC Milan
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- S. Gimenez — out (Transfer negotiations)
- M. Gabbia — out (Ankle Injury)
- C. Nkunku — out (Inactive)
- F. Tomori — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Leao — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Fofana — out (Transfer negotiations)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LazioWWWWL
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Udinese 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Genoa 1–0(xG 1.6–0.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Bologna 1–0(xG 0.6–1.8)
- Sat 23 May · H v Pisa 2–1
- Sun 17 May · A v AS Roma 0–2
AC MilanDWWLW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Juventus 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Venezia 2–0(xG 2.1–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Torino 2–1(xG 2.1–1.3)
- Sun 24 May · H v Cagliari 1–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Genoa 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lazio have won 4 of their last 5.
- Lazio have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lazio's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lazio's last 5.
- Lazio kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- AC Milan have won 3 of their last 5.
- AC Milan have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of AC Milan's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of AC Milan's last 5.
- AC Milan kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Lazio have won 3, AC Milan 6, with 1 drawn.
- Lazio W–D–L
- 3–1–6
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 3 of 10
- Lazio 1–0 AC Milan
- AC Milan 1–0 Lazio
- AC Milan 1–2 Lazio
- Lazio 2–2 AC Milan
- Lazio 0–1 AC Milan
- AC Milan 2–0 Lazio
- AC Milan 2–0 Lazio
- Lazio 4–0 AC Milan
- Lazio 1–2 AC Milan
- AC Milan 2–0 Lazio
7Context
Lazio
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
AC Milan
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadio Olimpico, Roma · Referee: Matteo Marcenaro, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Lazio vs AC Milan?
- Our model makes AC Milan the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- How many goals are expected in Lazio vs AC Milan?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Lazio vs AC Milan?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Lazio vs AC Milan?
- Lazio's reported absences and doubts include D. Doekhi, F. Dele-Bashiru, N. Rovella, D. Cataldi and 6 others. AC Milan's include S. Gimenez, M. Gabbia, C. Nkunku, F. Tomori and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lazio vs AC Milan?
- Lazio line up in a 4-3-3, AC Milan in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AC Milan?
- In their last 10 meetings, Lazio have won 3, AC Milan 6, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.