Serie A · Regular Season - 4
AtalantavCagliari
Atalanta
Cagliari·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.1–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Atalanta and Cagliari finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ata / Cag | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atalanta down the side and Cagliari across. These 98.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 58% against 50%.
What we think
- Atalanta65% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Atalanta
Best price 1.75 at 1xBetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 65% against a market price of 57% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 8 meetings averaged 2.5 goals.
- 18 players reported unavailable — 8 for Atalanta, 10 for Cagliari.
- The price has moved 4.7% away from Atalanta since it opened.
Our forecast makes Atalanta the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 59% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 50% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Atalanta a 57% chance. Our model makes it 65%.
2Market
Open: 62% home · 23% draw · 15% away
Now: 57% home · 25% draw · 18% away
Moved −5pp — the market moved away from Atalanta
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atalanta
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- O. Kossounou — out (Thigh Injury)
- G. Gaetano — out (Red Card)
- T. Kristensen — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Rowe — out (Inactive)
- H. Ahanor — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Sulemana — doubtful (Knee Injury)
- K. Sulemana — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Hien — out (Muscle Injury)
Cagliari
Confirmed · 4-3-2-1
- J. Pedro — doubtful (Injury)
- Y. Mina — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Nzola — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Felici — out (Knee Injury)
- Y. Sugawara — out (Inactive)
- Kevin — out (Personal Reasons)
- Y. Trepy — out (Injury)
- R. Idrissi — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Esposito — out (Injury)
- A. Albarracin — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AtalantaLWWDL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v AS Roma 1–2
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Bologna 1–0(xG 0.2–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sassuolo 2–1(xG 0.9–2.7)
- Fri 22 May · A v Fiorentina 1–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Bologna 0–1
CagliariWLWWW
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Lecce 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Inter 0–1(xG 0.5–3.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Parma 1–0
- Sun 24 May · A v AC Milan 2–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Torino 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atalanta have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Atalanta's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atalanta's last 5.
- Atalanta kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Cagliari have won 4 of their last 5.
- Cagliari have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Cagliari's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Cagliari's last 5.
- Cagliari kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Atalanta have won 4, Cagliari 3, with 1 drawn.
- Atalanta W–D–L
- 4–1–3
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 8
- Both scored
- 5 of 8
- Cagliari 3–2 Atalanta
- Atalanta 2–1 Cagliari
- Atalanta 0–0 Cagliari
- Cagliari 0–1 Atalanta
- Cagliari 2–1 Atalanta
- Atalanta 2–0 Cagliari
- Atalanta 1–2 Cagliari
- Cagliari 1–2 Atalanta
7Context
Atalanta
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Cagliari
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
New Balance Arena, Bergamo · Referee: Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- Our model makes Atalanta the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- Atalanta's reported absences and doubts include O. Kossounou, G. Gaetano, T. Kristensen, J. Rowe and 4 others. Cagliari's include J. Pedro, Y. Mina, M. Nzola, M. Felici and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- Atalanta line up in a 4-3-3, Cagliari in a 4-3-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cagliari?
- In their last 8 meetings, Atalanta have won 4, Cagliari 3, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.