Eredivisie · Regular Season - 7
ADO Den HaagvCambuur
ADO Den Haag
Cambuur·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). ADO Den Haag and Cambuur finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| ADO / Cam | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, ADO Den Haag down the side and Cambuur across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- ADO Den Haag58% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes ADO Den Haag the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
ADO Den Haag
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- L. Reischl — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Pozo — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Jimenez — out (Injury)
- M. Sin — out (Inactive)
- J. Hawkins — out (Hamstring Injury)
- C. Peupion — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Barany — out (Knee Injury)
Cambuur
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Binder — out (Injury)
- I. Hamache — doubtful (Injury)
- D. Bouah — doubtful (Injury)
- W. Asselman — out (Inactive)
- J. Berkhout — doubtful (Injury)
- R. van de Pavert — out (Personal Reasons)
- D. Visser — out (Knee Injury)
- W. Kooistra — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ADO Den HaagLLDLL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Twente 0–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Fortuna Sittard 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Feyenoord 2–2(xG 0.2–2.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v GO Ahead Eagles 1–3
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Groningen 1–4
CambuurWDLLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v NEC Nijmegen 3–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Telstar 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Twente 1–4(xG 0.5–1.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Feyenoord 2–5
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Fortuna Sittard 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- ADO Den Haag have won 0 of their last 5.
- ADO Den Haag have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of ADO Den Haag's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of ADO Den Haag's last 5.
- ADO Den Haag kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Cambuur have won 1 of their last 5.
- Cambuur have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Cambuur's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Cambuur's last 5.
- Cambuur kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
ADO Den Haag
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Cambuur
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
WerkTalent Stadion, Den Haag · Referee: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
- Our model makes ADO Den Haag the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
- ADO Den Haag's reported absences and doubts include L. Reischl, A. Pozo, M. Jimenez, M. Sin and 3 others. Cambuur's include N. Binder, I. Hamache, D. Bouah, W. Asselman and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
- ADO Den Haag line up in a 4-4-2, Cambuur in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.