Eredivisie · Regular Season - 7
Sparta RotterdamvHeerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen·
0 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Spa / Hee | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sparta Rotterdam down the side and Heerenveen across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Sparta Rotterdam38% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Sparta Rotterdam the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- S. Mito — out (Inactive)
- R. van Cruijsen — out (Injury)
- A. Kostic — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Baas — out (Yellow Cards)
Heerenveen
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- D. Proper — out (Injury)
- M. Hilgers — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Linday — out (Inactive)
- M. Egbring — out (Injury)
- O. Braude — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sparta RotterdamLDLDW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v PSV Eindhoven 1–4
- Fri 4 Sep · H v PEC Zwolle 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Excelsior 1–2(xG 1.0–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Utrecht 3–3
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Telstar 3–1
HeerenveenDLDLD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Telstar 0–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v AZ Alkmaar 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Willem II 2–2(xG 1.4–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v PEC Zwolle 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Ajax 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sparta Rotterdam have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 5.
- Sparta Rotterdam kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Heerenveen have won 0 of their last 5.
- Heerenveen have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Heerenveen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Heerenveen's last 5.
- Heerenveen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Heerenveen
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam · Referee: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
- Our model makes Sparta Rotterdam the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
- Sparta Rotterdam's reported absences and doubts include S. Mito, R. van Cruijsen, A. Kostic, J. Baas. Heerenveen's include D. Proper, M. Hilgers, M. Linday, M. Egbring and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
- Sparta Rotterdam line up in a 4-2-3-1, Heerenveen in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.