Eredivisie · Regular Season - 7

Willem IIvFortuna Sittard

·

0 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–01.3–1.1 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Willem II and Fortuna Sittard finish on some other score 66% of the time.

Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.

Probability of each scoreline, Willem II goals down the side, Fortuna Sittard across
Wil / For012345
01010620.60.1
11114730.80.2
278520.50.1
33320.70.20.0
41.010.60.20.10.0
50.20.30.20.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Willem II down the side and Fortuna Sittard across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 74%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 49%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 27%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Willem II39% · Match result
  • Under 2.551% · Goals
  • Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Willem II the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home39%vs—
Draw29%vs—
Away32%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.549%vs—
Under 2.551%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs—
Under 1.526%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.527%vs—
Under 3.573%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs—
No47%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Willem II

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • V. van Crooij — out (Ankle Injury)
  • J. Hoogma — out (Knee Injury)
  • K. Boogaard — out (Knock)
  • T. Vilhena — out (Inactive)
  • L. Abildgaard — out (Inactive)
  • T. Didillon Hodl — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • H. ter Avest — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • A. Zarrouk — out (Surgery)
  • J. Schuurman — out (Knock)
  • A. Lachkar — out (Groin Injury)
  • A. Culum — out (Foot Injury)

Fortuna Sittard

Confirmed · 5-4-1

  • O. Romeny — out (Inactive)
  • Y. Oukili — out (Groin Injury)
  • S. Wylin — out (Injury)
  • I. Marquez — out (Injury)
  • K. Peterson — out (Inactive)
  • S. Simons — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • R. Bayram — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Willem IILDLDL

  • Tue 15 Sep · A v Ajax 1–5
  • Fri 11 Sep · A v AZ Alkmaar 1–1
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Excelsior 0–3
  • Sun 30 Aug · H v Heerenveen 2–2(xG 1.7–1.4)
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v NEC Nijmegen 1–4

Fortuna SittardLWWLW

  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Ajax 1–5
  • Sun 6 Sep · A v ADO Den Haag 3–2
  • Fri 28 Aug · A v Groningen 3–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v AZ Alkmaar 0–2
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v Cambuur 3–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Willem II
  • Willem II have won 0 of their last 5.
  • Willem II have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Willem II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Willem II's last 5.
  • Willem II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
Fortuna Sittard
  • Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Fortuna Sittard have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Fortuna Sittard's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Fortuna Sittard's last 5.
  • Fortuna Sittard kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Willem II

Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d

Fortuna Sittard

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg · Referee: Dennis Higler, Netherlands

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model makes Willem II the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Willem II's reported absences and doubts include V. van Crooij, J. Hoogma, K. Boogaard, T. Vilhena and 7 others. Fortuna Sittard's include O. Romeny, Y. Oukili, S. Wylin, I. Marquez and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Willem II line up in a 4-3-3, Fortuna Sittard in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.