Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 3

EstrelavSC Braga

·

2 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–21.0–1.9 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 0-1 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Estrela and SC Braga finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Estrela goals down the side, SC Braga across
Est / SC 012345
061010631
151110631
2355310.6
30.92210.50.2
40.20.40.40.30.10.0
50.00.10.10.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Estrela down the side and SC Braga across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

What we think

  • SC Braga58% · Match result
  • Over 1.579% · Goals
  • Yes55% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Both teams to score: Yes

Best price 2.07 at BetanoThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.

  • We make this 55% against a market price of 46% — 9 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 78% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 7 matches between them averaged 3.6 goals, and 2.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
  • Both sides scored in 6 of those 7.
  • The price has moved 6.3% towards SC Braga since it opened.

Our forecast makes SC Braga the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 62%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives SC Braga a 62% chance. Our model makes it 58%.

SC BragaModel 58% [50%–65%]Market 62%
SC Braga:, our forecast 58%, between 50% and 65%, market 62%

2Market

Open: 19% home · 25% draw · 55% away

Now: 15% home · 24% draw · 62% away

Moved +7pp — the market moved towards SC Braga

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home19%vs15%+4pp
Draw23%vs24%−1pp
Away58%vs62%−4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs47%
Under 2.5—vs53%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs73%+6pp
Under 1.521%vs27%−6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs25%
Under 3.5—vs75%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes55%vs46%+9pp
No45%vs54%−9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Estrela

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

SC Braga

Confirmed · 3-4-3

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

EstrelaDWDD

  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Famalicao 2–2
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Nacional 3–2(xG 2.1–0.8)
  • Sat 15 Aug · A v Alverca 2–2
  • Sat 8 Aug · H v Sporting CP 2–2

SC BragaWWD

  • Sat 5 Sep · A v Alverca 2–1
  • Mon 31 Aug · H v Vitória SC 1–0(xG 0.8–0.2)
  • Sun 9 Aug · A v Moreirense 2–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Estrela
  • Estrela have won 1 of their last 4.
  • Estrela have scored in 4 of their last 4.
  • 4 of Estrela's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Estrela's last 4.
  • Estrela kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
SC Braga
  • SC Braga have won 2 of their last 3.
  • SC Braga have scored in 3 of their last 3.
  • 2 of SC Braga's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of SC Braga's last 3.
  • SC Braga kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Estrela

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

SC Braga

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo · Referee: Vasilica Iancu, Portugal

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Estrela vs SC Braga?
Our model makes SC Braga the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 62%.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs SC Braga?
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Estrela vs SC Braga?
Estrela line up in a 4-2-3-1, SC Braga in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.