Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7
Santa ClaravSC Braga
Santa Clara
SC Braga·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–10.9–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (10%). Santa Clara and SC Braga finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| San / SC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Santa Clara down the side and SC Braga across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- SC Braga49% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes SC Braga the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Santa Clara
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
SC Braga
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Santa ClaraWWDWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Arouca 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Rio Ave 4–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Alverca 1–1(xG 1.4–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Famalicao 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Academico Viseu 1–0
SC BragaWLWWD
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Estoril 1–0
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Estrela 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Alverca 2–1
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Vitória SC 1–0(xG 0.8–0.2)
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Moreirense 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Santa Clara have won 4 of their last 5.
- Santa Clara have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Santa Clara's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Santa Clara's last 5.
- Santa Clara kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- SC Braga have won 3 of their last 5.
- SC Braga have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of SC Braga's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of SC Braga's last 5.
- SC Braga kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Santa Clara
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
SC Braga
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada · Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
- Our model makes SC Braga the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Santa Clara vs SC Braga?
- Santa Clara line up in a 4-3-3, SC Braga in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.