Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
SC BragavEstoril
SC Braga
Estoril·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%). SC Braga and Estoril finish on some other score 73% of the time.
| SC / Est | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, SC Braga down the side and Estoril across. These 96.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 62% against 57%.
What we think
- SC Braga68% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 1.95 at Bet365The number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 57% against a market price of 48% — 9 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 9 matches between them averaged 2.2 goals, and 1.7 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 5 of those 9.
- The price has moved 3.8% towards SC Braga since it opened.
Our forecast makes SC Braga the most likely of the three results, at 68% (we would not be surprised by anything from 60% to 74%). Most likely is not likely: at 68% this result does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 71%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, against the market’s 57% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives SC Braga a 71% chance. Our model makes it 68%.
2Market
Open: 67% home · 20% draw · 12% away
Now: 71% home · 20% draw · 9% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards SC Braga
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
SC Braga
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
Estoril
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SC BragaLWWD
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Estrela 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Alverca 2–1
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Vitória SC 1–0(xG 0.8–0.2)
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Moreirense 2–2
EstorilDLLLD
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Arouca 0–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Benfica 1–2(xG 0.4–2.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Rio Ave 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Nacional 0–2
- Fri 7 Aug · H v Famalicao 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- SC Braga have won 2 of their last 4.
- SC Braga have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 3 of SC Braga's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of SC Braga's last 4.
- SC Braga kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Estoril have won 0 of their last 5.
- Estoril have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Estoril's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Estoril's last 5.
- Estoril kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
SC Braga
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estoril
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga · Referee: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win SC Braga vs Estoril?
- Our model makes SC Braga the most likely result at 68%. Most likely is not likely — at 68% it does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 71%.
- How many goals are expected in SC Braga vs Estoril?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Estoril?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for SC Braga vs Estoril?
- SC Braga line up in a 3-4-3, Estoril in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.