Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
MoreirensevMaritimo
Moreirense
Maritimo·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Moreirense and Maritimo finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Mor / Mar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Moreirense down the side and Maritimo across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 48% against 41%.
What we think
- Moreirense44% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Moreirense the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Maritimo the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 34%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, against the market’s 41% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Maritimo a 35% chance. Our model makes it 28%.
2Market
Open: 39% home · 30% draw · 31% away
Now: 34% home · 30% draw · 35% away
Moved −5pp — the market moved away from Moreirense
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Moreirense
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Maritimo
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MoreirenseLLWLD
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Benfica 0–4
- Fri 4 Sep · A v FC Porto 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Casa Pia 1–0(xG 0.3–0.8)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Arouca 0–4
- Sun 9 Aug · H v SC Braga 2–2
MaritimoLLDWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Benfica 0–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Arouca 1–2(xG 0.7–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Academico Viseu 2–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Famalicao 2–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Casa Pia 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Moreirense have won 1 of their last 5.
- Moreirense have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Moreirense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Moreirense's last 5.
- Moreirense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Maritimo have won 2 of their last 5.
- Maritimo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Maritimo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Maritimo's last 5.
- Maritimo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Moreirense
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Maritimo
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos · Referee: Fabio Melo, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Moreirense vs Maritimo?
- Our model makes Moreirense the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market instead favours Maritimo at 35%.
- How many goals are expected in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Moreirense vs Maritimo?
- Moreirense line up in a 4-2-3-1, Maritimo in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.