Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
Rio AvevEstrela
Rio Ave
Estrela·
3 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Rio Ave and Estrela finish on some other score 67% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Rio / Est | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Rio Ave down the side and Estrela across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 46%.
What we think
- Rio Ave42% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Rio Ave the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Estrela the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 46% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Estrela a 39% chance. Our model makes it 30%.
2Market
Open: 35% home · 29% draw · 37% away
Now: 32% home · 29% draw · 39% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Rio Ave
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Rio Ave
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Estrela
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Rio AveLLWLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Santa Clara 0–4
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Sporting CP 0–4(xG 0.5–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Estoril 2–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v FC Porto 0–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v GIL Vicente 0–1
EstrelaWDWDD
- Thu 10 Sep · H v SC Braga 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Famalicao 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Nacional 3–2(xG 2.1–0.8)
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Alverca 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Sporting CP 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Rio Ave have won 1 of their last 5.
- Rio Ave have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 2 of Rio Ave's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Rio Ave's last 5.
- Rio Ave kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Estrela have won 2 of their last 5.
- Estrela have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Estrela's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Estrela's last 5.
- Estrela kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Rio Ave
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Estrela
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio do Rio Ave FC, Vila do Conde · Referee: Gustavo Correia, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Rio Ave vs Estrela?
- Our model makes Rio Ave the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market instead favours Estrela at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Rio Ave vs Estrela?
- Rio Ave line up in a 4-2-3-1, Estrela in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.