Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7
Vitória SCvMoreirense
Vitória SC
Moreirense·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.5–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (13%), then 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%). Vitória SC and Moreirense finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Vit / Mor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Vitória SC down the side and Moreirense across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Vitória SC51% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Vitória SC the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vitória SC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Moreirense
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Vitória SCLDLWL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Academico Viseu 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Casa Pia 0–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v SC Braga 0–1(xG 0.2–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Nacional 1–0
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Sporting CP 2–3
MoreirenseWLLWL
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Maritimo 3–1
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Benfica 0–4
- Fri 4 Sep · A v FC Porto 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Casa Pia 1–0(xG 0.3–0.8)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Arouca 0–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vitória SC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Vitória SC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Vitória SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Vitória SC's last 5.
- Vitória SC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Moreirense have won 2 of their last 5.
- Moreirense have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Moreirense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Moreirense's last 5.
- Moreirense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Vitória SC
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Moreirense
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes · Referee: Sergio Guelho, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
- Our model makes Vitória SC the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
- Vitória SC line up in a 4-2-3-1, Moreirense in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.