Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7
FC PortovBenfica
FC Porto
Benfica·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). FC Porto and Benfica finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Ben | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Porto down the side and Benfica across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- FC Porto42% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes FC Porto the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Porto
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
Benfica
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC PortoWWWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Casa Pia 4–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Moreirense 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Academico Viseu 3–0(xG 1.5–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Arouca 2–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Rio Ave 2–0
BenficaWWWWW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v GIL Vicente 3–1
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Moreirense 4–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Maritimo 3–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Estoril 2–1(xG 2.0–0.4)
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Casa Pia 7–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Porto have won 5 of their last 5.
- FC Porto have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Porto's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of FC Porto's last 5.
- FC Porto kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Benfica have won 5 of their last 5.
- Benfica have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Benfica's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Benfica's last 5.
- Benfica kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Porto
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Benfica
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio do Dragão, Porto · Referee: Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Porto vs Benfica?
- Our model makes FC Porto the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in FC Porto vs Benfica?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Benfica?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Porto vs Benfica?
- FC Porto line up in a 4-3-3, Benfica in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.