Serie A · Regular Season - 28
RemovSantos
Remo
Santos·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Remo and Santos finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rem / San | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Remo down the side and Santos across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 49%.
What we think
- Remo44% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Remo the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Santos the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 49% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Santos a 38% chance. Our model makes it 29%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 29% draw · 38% away
Now: 33% home · 29% draw · 38% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Remo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Marcelinho — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Fernando — out (Red Card)
- Ze Ivaldo — out (Loan agreement)
- Mayk — out (Inactive)
- Jaja — out (Inactive)
- Eduardo Melo — out (Inactive)
- Ze Ricardo — out (Red Card)
- Patrick de Paula — out (Groin Injury)
- Thalisson — out (Knee Injury)
- Kayky Almeida — out (Knee Injury)
- Freitas — out (Inactive)
- Joao Lucas — out (Knee Injury)
- Savio — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Diego Hernandez — out (Inactive)
Santos
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Lucas Verissimo — out (Ankle Injury)
- Gabriel Barbosa — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Brazao — out (Inactive)
- A. Barreal — out (Thigh Injury)
- Neymar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Joao Schmidt — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Menino — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Frias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Moises — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Vinicius — out (Back Injury)
- Gustavo Henrique — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Thaciano — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Mayke — out (Inactive)
- L. Diaz — out (Inactive)
- Ze Rafael — out (Ankle Injury)
- Willian Arao — out (Inactive)
- Tiquinho Soares — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RemoLLLLD
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Bahia 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Flamengo 0–1
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Coritiba 2–3(xG 2.9–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Fluminense 1–2
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Internacional 1–1
SantosWWWDW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Cruzeiro 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Internacional 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Corinthians 1–0(xG 1.2–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Mirassol 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Vasco DA Gama 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Remo have won 0 of their last 5.
- Remo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Remo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Remo's last 5.
- Remo kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Santos have won 4 of their last 5.
- Santos have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Santos's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Santos's last 5.
- Santos kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Remo W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Santos 2–0 Remo
7Context
Remo
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Santos
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Mangueirao, Belem · Referee: W. Sampaio
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Remo vs Santos?
- Our model makes Remo the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market instead favours Santos at 38%.
- How many goals are expected in Remo vs Santos?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Remo vs Santos?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Remo vs Santos?
- Remo's reported absences and doubts include Marcelinho, Edson Fernando, Ze Ivaldo, Mayk and 10 others. Santos's include Lucas Verissimo, Gabriel Barbosa, Gabriel Brazao, A. Barreal and 13 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Remo vs Santos?
- Remo line up in a 4-2-3-1, Santos in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.