Serie A · Regular Season - 28
Vasco DA GamavCoritiba
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba·
5 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Vas / Cor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Vasco DA Gama down the side and Coritiba across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 57% against 53%.
What we think
- Vasco DA Gama54% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.00 at BetfairThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 56% against a market price of 48% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.5 goals, and 4.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 8 of those 10.
- 25 players reported unavailable — 10 for Vasco DA Gama, 15 for Coritiba.
Our forecast makes Vasco DA Gama the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 67%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, against the market’s 53% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Vasco DA Gama a 67% chance. Our model makes it 54%.
2Market
Open: 67% home · 21% draw · 12% away
Now: 67% home · 21% draw · 12% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vasco DA Gama
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Cuiabano — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rojas — out (Inactive)
- Jair — out (Muscle Injury)
- Brenner — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Saldivia — out (Calf Injury)
- C. Cuesta — out (Red Card)
- Paulo Henrique — out (Ankle Injury)
- Cauan Barros — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Rodriguez — out (Yellow Cards)
- Mateus Carvalho — out (Knee Injury)
Coritiba
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Keno — out (Inactive)
- Joao Pedro Chermont — out (Inactive)
- Jacy — out (Inactive)
- Breno Lopes — out (Red Card)
- Tiago Coser — out (Yellow Cards)
- Tinga — out (Muscle Injury)
- Pedro Rangel — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- Lucas Ronier — out (Knee Injury)
- Josue — out (Injury)
- S. Gomez — out (Head Injury)
- Maicon — out (Inactive)
- Wallisson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Pedro Morisco — out (Shoulder Injury)
- Lucas Crepaldi — out (Inactive)
- Benassi — out (Toe Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Vasco DA GamaWLWLL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Gremio 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Fluminense 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Cruzeiro 3–1(xG 3.2–0.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Palmeiras 1–4
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Santos 0–3
CoritibaDLWWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Atletico Paranaense 3–3
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Mirassol 1–2
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Remo 3–2(xG 1.5–2.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Corinthians 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Sao Paulo 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vasco DA Gama have won 2 of their last 5.
- Vasco DA Gama have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Vasco DA Gama's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Vasco DA Gama's last 5.
- Vasco DA Gama kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Coritiba have won 2 of their last 5.
- Coritiba have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Coritiba's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Coritiba's last 5.
- Coritiba kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Vasco DA Gama W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Coritiba 1–1 Vasco DA Gama
7Context
Vasco DA Gama
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Coritiba
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
São Januário, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: B. Machado
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
- Our model makes Vasco DA Gama the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 67%.
- How many goals are expected in Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
- Vasco DA Gama's reported absences and doubts include Cuiabano, J. Rojas, Jair, Brenner and 6 others. Coritiba's include Keno, Joao Pedro Chermont, Jacy, Breno Lopes and 11 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
- Vasco DA Gama line up in a 4-2-3-1, Coritiba in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.