Serie A · Regular Season - 28

Atletico-MGvChapecoense-sc

·

1 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–12.1–0.7 goals

Likeliest exact score 2–0 (14%), then 1-0 (13%), 3-0 (10%). Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc finish on some other score 64% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Atletico-MG goals down the side, Chapecoense-sc across
Atl / Cha012345
06410.30.10.0
113930.70.10.0
214930.70.10.0
310720.50.10.0
45310.30.00.0
5210.50.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atletico-MG down the side and Chapecoense-sc across. These 97.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.2% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 78%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 54%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 32%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Atletico-MG71% · Match result
  • Over 2.554% · Goals
  • Yes51% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Atletico-MG the most likely of the three results, at 71% (we would not be surprised by anything from 63% to 78%). Most likely is not likely: at 71% this result does not happen 29% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home71%vs—
Draw19%vs—
Away10%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.554%vs—
Under 2.546%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.578%vs—
Under 1.522%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.532%vs—
Under 3.568%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes51%vs—
No49%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Atletico-MG

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • Ruan Tressoldi — out (Muscle Injury)
  • A. Preciado — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Lyanco — out (Foot Injury)
  • R. Lodi — out (Suspended)
  • Gustavo Scarpa — out (Muscle Injury)
  • Cuello — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • I. Roman — out (Yellow Cards)
  • A. Minda — out (Inactive)
  • A. Franco — out (Personal Reasons)
  • Maycon — out (Inactive)
  • M. Cisse — out (Thigh Injury)
  • Patrick Silva — out (Knee Injury)
  • Vitor Hugo — out (Calf Injury)
  • Alexsander — out (Knee Injury)
  • Junior Santos — doubtful (Inactive)

Chapecoense-sc

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • Giovanni Augusto — out (Inactive)
  • Joao Paulo — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Victor Caetano — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Y. Bolasie — out (Injury)
  • Rafael Carvalheira — out (Knee Injury)
  • Mauricio Garcez — out (Thigh Injury)
  • Eduardo Doma — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Camilo Reijers — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Rafael Thyere — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • Robert Conceicao — out (Knee Injury)
  • Everton — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Marcos Vinicius — doubtful (Inactive)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Atletico-MGWLWDW

  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Fluminense 3–1
  • Sat 5 Sep · A v Sao Paulo 0–2
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Vitoria 2–1(xG 1.5–0.6)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Internacional 0–0
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v Gremio 3–0

Chapecoense-scLWLWD

  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Internacional 1–2
  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Corinthians 2–1
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Gremio 1–3(xG 2.8–0.7)
  • Sun 23 Aug · H v Sao Paulo 1–0
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v Bahia 3–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Atletico-MG
  • Atletico-MG have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Atletico-MG have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Atletico-MG's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Atletico-MG's last 5.
  • Atletico-MG kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
Chapecoense-sc
  • Chapecoense-sc have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Chapecoense-sc have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5.
  • Chapecoense-sc kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.

Atletico-MG W–D–L
1–0–0
Over 2.5
1 of 1
Both scored
0 of 1
  • Chapecoense-sc 0–4 Atletico-MG

7Context

Atletico-MG

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Chapecoense-sc

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta · Referee: R. Claus

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model makes Atletico-MG the most likely result at 71%. Most likely is not likely — at 71% it does not happen 29% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG's reported absences and doubts include Ruan Tressoldi, A. Preciado, Lyanco, R. Lodi and 11 others. Chapecoense-sc's include Giovanni Augusto, Joao Paulo, Victor Caetano, Y. Bolasie and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico-MG line up in a 4-2-3-1, Chapecoense-sc in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.