Serie A · Regular Season - 28
MirassolvBotafogo
Mirassol
Botafogo·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Mirassol and Botafogo finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mir / Bot | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Mirassol down the side and Botafogo across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Mirassol45% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Mirassol the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Mirassol
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Alesson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Walter — out (Injury)
- Neto Moura — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Carioca — out (Injury)
- Jose Aldo — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre Luis — out (Muscle Injury)
- Yuri Lara — out (Ankle Injury)
- Negueba — out (Knee Injury)
- Eduardo — out (Red Card)
- Renato Marques — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Carius — out (Hamstring Injury)
Botafogo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Barria — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Cabral — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheus Martins — out (Inactive)
- Marcal — out (Red Card)
- N. Ferraresi — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Correa — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Ponte — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Medina — out (Yellow Cards)
- Junior Santos — out (Foot Injury)
- Bastos — out (Injury)
- Alex Telles — out (Yellow Cards)
- Nathan Fernandes — out (Knee Injury)
- Allan — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Barboza — out (Inactive)
- S. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- C. Ramos — out (Inactive)
- Newton — out (Inactive)
- Kaio Pantaleao — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MirassolDWLDD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Vitoria 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Coritiba 2–1
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Flamengo 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Palmeiras 1–1(xG 0.8–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Santos 1–1
BotafogoWDDLL
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Gremio 3–2(xG 0.9–0.6)
- Sat 12 Sep · H v RB Bragantino 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Palmeiras 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Flamengo 0–3(xG 0.8–1.7)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Atletico Paranaense 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Mirassol have won 1 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Mirassol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Mirassol's last 5.
- Mirassol kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Botafogo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Botafogo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Botafogo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Botafogo's last 5.
- Botafogo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Mirassol W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Botafogo 3–2 Mirassol
7Context
Mirassol
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Botafogo
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirasol · Referee: F. Fernandes de Lima
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Mirassol vs Botafogo?
- Our model makes Mirassol the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Botafogo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Botafogo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Mirassol vs Botafogo?
- Mirassol's reported absences and doubts include Alesson, Walter, Neto Moura, Edson Carioca and 7 others. Botafogo's include K. Barria, Arthur Cabral, Matheus Martins, Marcal and 14 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Mirassol vs Botafogo?
- Mirassol line up in a 4-2-3-1, Botafogo in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.