Premier League · Regular Season - 5
BrentfordvChelsea
Brentford
Chelsea·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Brentford and Chelsea finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bre / Che | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Brentford down the side and Chelsea across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 44%.
What we think
- Brentford43% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Brentford the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Chelsea the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 65% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Chelsea a 42% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 35% home · 25% draw · 40% away
Now: 33% home · 25% draw · 42% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Chelsea
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Brentford
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Jensen — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Milambo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Furo — out (Surgery)
- N. Collins — out (Injury)
- J. Dasilva — out (Injury)
- S. van den Berg — out (Injury)
Chelsea
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- E. Emegha — out (Injury)
- Joao Pedro — out (Injury)
- M. Gusto — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Caicedo — out (Injury)
- M. Palestra — out (Injury)
- E. Fernandez — out (Coach's decision)
- E. Martinez — out (Finger Injury)
- M. Sarr — out (Transfer negotiations)
- J. Henderson — out (Wrist Injury)
- W. Fofana — out (Red Card)
- A. Anselmino — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BrentfordDDDWD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Bournemouth 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Sunderland 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Leeds 1–1(xG 1.6–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Tottenham 3–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Liverpool 1–1
ChelseaDLWWL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Hull City 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Arsenal 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Brighton 4–3(xG 3.0–1.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Fulham 3–2(xG 2.2–1.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Sunderland 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Brentford have won 1 of their last 5.
- Brentford have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Brentford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Brentford's last 5.
- Brentford kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Chelsea have won 2 of their last 5.
- Chelsea have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Chelsea's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Chelsea's last 5.
- Chelsea kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Brentford have won 3, Chelsea 3, with 4 drawn.
- Brentford W–D–L
- 3–4–3
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Chelsea 2–0 Brentford
- Brentford 2–2 Chelsea
- Brentford 0–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 2–1 Brentford
- Brentford 2–2 Chelsea
- Chelsea 0–2 Brentford
- Chelsea 0–2 Brentford
- Brentford 0–0 Chelsea
- Chelsea 1–4 Brentford
- Brentford 0–1 Chelsea
7Context
Brentford
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Chelsea
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex · Referee: Andy Madley, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Brentford vs Chelsea?
- Our model makes Brentford the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market instead favours Chelsea at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Brentford vs Chelsea?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Brentford vs Chelsea?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Brentford vs Chelsea?
- Brentford's reported absences and doubts include M. Jensen, A. Milambo, K. Furo, N. Collins and 2 others. Chelsea's include E. Emegha, Joao Pedro, M. Gusto, M. Caicedo and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Brentford vs Chelsea?
- Brentford line up in a 4-2-3-1, Chelsea in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Chelsea?
- In their last 10 meetings, Brentford have won 3, Chelsea 3, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.