Eredivisie · Regular Season - 7
FeyenoordvUtrecht
Feyenoord
Utrecht·
5 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Feyenoord and Utrecht finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Fey / Utr | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Feyenoord down the side and Utrecht across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 54%.
What we think
- Feyenoord56% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 67% against a market price of 46% — 21 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 83% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 5.3 goals, and 3.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 18 players reported unavailable — 8 for Feyenoord, 10 for Utrecht.
Our forecast makes Feyenoord the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 46% to 66%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 76%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 74% — a 20 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Feyenoord a 76% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 77% home · 15% draw · 9% away
Now: 76% home · 15% draw · 9% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Feyenoord
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Feyenoord
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- G. Borges — out (Knock)
- R. Nelson — out (Inactive)
- T. Watanabe — out (Ribs Injury)
- G. Smal — out (Ankle Injury)
- B. Nieuwkoop — out (Injury)
- J. Moder — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Bos — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Beelen — out (Broken Leg)
Utrecht
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- O. Agougil — out (Inactive)
- J. van Overeem — out (Inactive)
- M. Broholm — out (Inactive)
- J. van Ommeren — out (Back Injury)
- N. Vesterlund — out (Injury)
- K. Paredes — out (Inactive)
- N. Ohio — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Jonathans — out (Knee Injury)
- V. Jensen — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Engwanda — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FeyenoordWWDWD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v PEC Zwolle 7–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v NEC Nijmegen 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v ADO Den Haag 2–2(xG 2.5–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Cambuur 5–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v GO Ahead Eagles 2–2
UtrechtWDLDL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Excelsior 2–1
- Tue 8 Sep · H v GO Ahead Eagles 3–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v PSV Eindhoven 1–6(xG 0.3–3.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Sparta Rotterdam 3–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v AZ Alkmaar 1–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Feyenoord have won 3 of their last 5.
- Feyenoord have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Feyenoord's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Feyenoord's last 5.
- Feyenoord kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Utrecht have won 1 of their last 5.
- Utrecht have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Utrecht's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Utrecht's last 5.
- Utrecht kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Feyenoord
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Utrecht
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam · Referee: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
- Our model makes Feyenoord the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 76%.
- How many goals are expected in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
- Feyenoord's reported absences and doubts include G. Borges, R. Nelson, T. Watanabe, G. Smal and 4 others. Utrecht's include O. Agougil, J. van Overeem, M. Broholm, J. van Ommeren and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
- Feyenoord line up in a 4-3-3, Utrecht in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.