Eredivisie · Regular Season - 7
NEC NijmegenvGO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
GO Ahead Eagles·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (9%), then 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%). NEC Nijmegen and GO Ahead Eagles finish on some other score 74% of the time.
| NEC / GO | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, NEC Nijmegen down the side and GO Ahead Eagles across. These 97.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- NEC Nijmegen59% · Match result
- Over 2.564% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes NEC Nijmegen the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 64%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
NEC Nijmegen
Lineup not yet confirmed
- E. Mor — out (Injury)
- D. Fonville — out (Ankle Injury)
- G. Crettaz — out (Injury)
- C. Bischoff — out (Injury)
- D. Nejasmic — out (Inactive)
- B. Linssen — out (Injury)
- P. Sandler — out (Injury)
- A. Kaplan — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Ouaissa — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Schuurs — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Ogawa — out (Head Injury)
- Y. Moslih — out (Injury)
GO Ahead Eagles
Lineup not yet confirmed
- E. Waayers — out (Inactive)
- G. van Zwam — out (Inactive)
- R. Weijenberg — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Saathof — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Nauber — out (Broken Leg)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NEC NijmegenLDLWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Cambuur 0–3
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Excelsior 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Feyenoord 1–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v PEC Zwolle 3–1(xG 1.9–2.0)
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Willem II 4–1
GO Ahead EaglesDDLWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Groningen 1–1
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Utrecht 3–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v AZ Alkmaar 2–5(xG 1.7–2.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v ADO Den Haag 3–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Feyenoord 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- NEC Nijmegen have won 2 of their last 5.
- NEC Nijmegen have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of NEC Nijmegen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of NEC Nijmegen's last 5.
- NEC Nijmegen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- GO Ahead Eagles have won 1 of their last 5.
- GO Ahead Eagles have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of GO Ahead Eagles's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of GO Ahead Eagles's last 5.
- GO Ahead Eagles kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
NEC Nijmegen
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · Referee: Martijn Vos, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
- Our model makes NEC Nijmegen the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 64%, and under 2.5 at 36%.
- Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles?
- NEC Nijmegen's reported absences and doubts include E. Mor, D. Fonville, G. Crettaz, C. Bischoff and 8 others. GO Ahead Eagles's include E. Waayers, G. van Zwam, R. Weijenberg, P. Saathof and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.