Eredivisie · Regular Season - 7
AZ AlkmaarvTelstar
AZ Alkmaar
Telstar·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). AZ Alkmaar and Telstar finish on some other score 71% of the time.
| AZ / Tel | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, AZ Alkmaar down the side and Telstar across. These 97.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 55%.
What we think
- AZ Alkmaar63% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 63% against a market price of 45% — 18 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 75% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.4 goals, and 3.6 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 11 players reported unavailable — 9 for AZ Alkmaar, 2 for Telstar.
Our forecast makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 79%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 74% — a 13 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives AZ Alkmaar a 79% chance. Our model makes it 63%.
2Market
Open: 78% home · 13% draw · 8% away
Now: 79% home · 14% draw · 8% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Sin — out (Inactive)
- K. Smit — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Resink — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Parrott — out (Inactive)
- R. Robbemond — out (Inactive)
- A. Natali — out (Inactive)
- D. Kasius — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Hornkamp — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Clasie — out (Injury)
Telstar
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Thorisson — out (Red Card)
- M. Peersman — doubtful (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AZ AlkmaarDWWWW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Willem II 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Heerenveen 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v GO Ahead Eagles 5–2(xG 2.4–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Fortuna Sittard 2–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Utrecht 4–1
TelstarDLDLL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Heerenveen 0–0
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Twente 0–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Cambuur 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Ajax 0–4(xG 1.1–2.1)
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Sparta Rotterdam 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of their last 5.
- AZ Alkmaar have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of AZ Alkmaar's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of AZ Alkmaar's last 5.
- AZ Alkmaar kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Telstar have won 0 of their last 5.
- Telstar have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Telstar's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Telstar's last 5.
- Telstar kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
AZ Alkmaar
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Telstar
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar · Referee: Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
- Our model makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 79%.
- How many goals are expected in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
- AZ Alkmaar's reported absences and doubts include M. Sin, K. Smit, S. Resink, T. Parrott and 5 others. Telstar's include N. Thorisson, M. Peersman. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
- AZ Alkmaar line up in a 4-2-3-1, Telstar in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.