La Liga · Regular Season - 7

EspanyolvElche

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1 – 3 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–11.6–1.1 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Espanyol and Elche finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Espanyol goals down the side, Elche across
Esp / Elc012345
087410.40.1
11113620.60.1
299520.50.1
35530.90.20.1
42210.40.10.0
50.60.60.30.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Espanyol down the side and Elche across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 76%, market 77%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 53%, market 52%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 30%, market 30%

We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 76% against 77%.

What we think

  • Espanyol49% · Match result
  • Over 2.553% · Goals
  • Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Espanyol the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (52%).

For comparison, the market gives Espanyol a 52% chance. Our model makes it 49%.

EspanyolModel 49% [40%–58%]Market 52%
Espanyol:, our forecast 49%, between 40% and 58%, market 52%

2Market

Open: 53% home · 26% draw · 21% away

Now: 52% home · 27% draw · 21% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home49%vs52%−3pp
Draw26%vs27%−1pp
Away25%vs21%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.553%vs52%+1pp
Under 2.547%vs48%−1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.576%vs77%−1pp
Under 1.524%vs23%+1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.530%vs30%0pp
Under 3.570%vs70%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs55%−2pp
No47%vs45%+2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Espanyol

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • O. El Hilali — out (Red Card)
  • Jofre — out (Groin Injury)
  • A. Gorosabel — out (Injury)
  • B. Zaragoza — out (Knee Injury)
  • J. Puado — out (Knee Injury)
  • K. Garcia — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • L. Cabrera — out (Red Card)

Elche

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • A. Boayar — out (Muscle Injury)
  • T. Lemar — doubtful (Coach's decision)
  • Y. Santiago — out (Knee Injury)
  • A. Osorio — out (Muscle Injury)
  • G. Diangana — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

EspanyolLWDLL

  • Tue 15 Sep · A v Rayo Vallecano 1–2
  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Osasuna 2–0
  • Sun 6 Sep · H v Sevilla 1–1
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Real Sociedad 1–2(xG 0.8–1.7)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v Real Madrid 1–2

ElcheLDLLL

  • Tue 15 Sep · H v Real Madrid 2–3
  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Athletic Club 1–1
  • Mon 7 Sep · H v Real Sociedad 2–3
  • Fri 28 Aug · A v Racing Santander 2–3(xG 1.1–1.5)
  • Sun 23 Aug · H v Barcelona 0–5(xG 0.7–4.4)

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Espanyol
  • Espanyol have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Espanyol have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Espanyol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Espanyol's last 5.
  • Espanyol kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Elche
  • Elche have won 0 of their last 5.
  • Elche have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Elche's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Elche's last 5.
  • Elche kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 6 meetings, Espanyol have won 2, Elche 1, with 3 drawn.

Espanyol W–D–L
2–3–1
Over 2.5
4 of 6
Both scored
4 of 6
  • Elche 2–2 Espanyol
  • Espanyol 1–0 Elche
  • Elche 0–1 Espanyol
  • Espanyol 2–2 Elche
  • Espanyol 1–2 Elche
  • Elche 2–2 Espanyol

7Context

Espanyol

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

Elche

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

RCDE Stadium, Cornella · Referee: Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban, Spain

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Espanyol vs Elche?
Our model makes Espanyol the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
How many goals are expected in Espanyol vs Elche?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Elche?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Espanyol vs Elche?
Espanyol's reported absences and doubts include O. El Hilali, Jofre, A. Gorosabel, B. Zaragoza and 3 others. Elche's include A. Boayar, T. Lemar, Y. Santiago, A. Osorio and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Espanyol vs Elche?
Espanyol line up in a 4-2-3-1, Elche in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Elche?
In their last 6 meetings, Espanyol have won 2, Elche 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.